Joe Burrow or Sam Darnold: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Burrow — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Joe Burrow is the higher consensus play (QB5 to QB24) and projects 18.2 to Darnold's 16.1. Darnold's edge is the matchup, 13 of 32 to 6. The gap is wide.

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow

QB5CINvs JAX

Projected Points

Start
Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold

QB24SEAvs LAC

Projected Points

Start

Joe Burrow’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 265.5
-111 / -113
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
-194 / +151
Passing Touchdowns Props →

Sam Darnold’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 232.5
-114 / -114
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
-127 / +100
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
+116 / -149
Interceptions Thrown Props →
JAX@
CINSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LAC@
SEASun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Joe Burrow

Start

Franchise QB and precision pocket passer. Elite accuracy and anticipation; missed time in 2025 with injury.

Start — every-week QB start at consensus QB5: JAX is the 6th-toughest matchup vs QBs, 27.0 implied team total.

  • JAX ranks 6 of 32 against QBs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 100% snap share.

Latest on Burrow

Mark Duffner's Nickname For Joe Burrow And Other Bengals-Jags Tidbits

Catching up with an old friend in the Bengals-Jaguars rivalry.

bengals.com · Sep 29, 2026
Joe Burrow, Bengals can't 'close it out' against Steelers

Special teams gaffes and a Burrow fumble late in the fourth sealed Cincinnati's outcome.

ESPN · Sep 28, 2026
Everything Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow Said After Week 3 Against the Steelers

Read everything the Bengals said after Week 3 against the Steelers.

bengals.com · Sep 27, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Sam Darnold

Start

Starting QB with prototypical size and arm strength. Full 17-game workload, 4,000-yard passer whose turnover volume caps efficiency.

Start — QB24 consensus, projects QB17 this week: 24.3 implied team total, 55% snap share.

  • LAC ranks 13 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 24.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
  • Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share.

Latest on Darnold

Status

Sam Darnold practiced with the Seahawks for the first time in two weeks on Wednesday, Sept. 23 as a limited participant in practice four days before the Seahawks play at the Washington Commanders.

Yahoo Sports · Sep 24, 2026
Sam Darnold laments 'bad decision' in return for Seahawks

Sam Darnold's return from the glute injury that sidelined him for most of the Seahawks' first two games was shaping up to be memorable until a "bad decision" late proved costly against the Commanders.

ESPN · Sep 27, 2026
Sam Darnold Throws For Career-High 379 Yards In Return, Laments Turnovers In Loss To Commanders

Sam Darnold put up career-high numbers in his first full game of the 2026 season, but a pair of second-half turnovers ultimately led to the Seahawks' first loss of the 2026 season.

seahawks.com · Sep 27, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricJoe BurrowSam Darnold
Projected points
Consensus rankQB5QB24
Opponent vs positionJAX · 6 of 323-game sampleLAC · 13 of 323-game sample
Passing Yards21 of 3222 of 32
Passing TDs1 of 329 of 32
Passing Completions4 of 3218 of 32
Passing Attempts5 of 3210 of 32
Interceptions1 of 326 of 32
Implied total · spread27.0-2.524.3-3.0
Depth chartQB1QB1
Snap share100%55%
Start/Sit record—0–1

Recent form

Joe Burrow — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PIT
Week 2vs HOU
Week 1vs TB

Sam Darnold — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs WSH
Week 2vs ARIDNP
Week 1vs NE

Signal breakdown

  • 18.2 vs 16.1 projected PPR pointsJoe Burrow +
  • Rank 5 vs 24Joe Burrow +
  • Opponent DvP rank 6 vs 13 (32 = softest)Sam Darnold +
  • Implied 27.0 vs 24.3 team pointsJoe Burrow +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 100% vs 55% snap shareJoe Burrow +

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