Isaiah Likely or Zay Flowers: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Isaiah Likely and Zay Flowers grade out even this week. Likely's best edge is snap share (67% to 31%), Flowers's best edge is the projection (15.3 to 11.7) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Isaiah Likely
7.49.611.7 Projected Points
Zay Flowers
10.613.015.3 Projected Points
Isaiah Likely’s market
Zay Flowers’s market
Why Isaiah Likely
Start· mediumStarting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.
28% target share over 3 games in an offense implied for 26.3 points makes Likely a viable TE1 fringe start at TE14 despite a neutral matchup.
- ARI ranks 19 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 7.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 67% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the driver: a 28% target share is elite for a tight end and gives him a stable PPR floor, even at a 67% snap share.
- Game environment helps. A 26.3 implied team total and a -7.0 spread point to plenty of scoring chances, including red-zone looks.
- The matchup is neutral at 19 of 32, and it rests on a thin 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
- The 11.7 projection and TE14 rank put him on the TE1/TE2 border. With no injury designation, he's a start over typical replacement-level tight ends in 12-team leagues.
Latest on Likely
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Zay Flowers
StartWR1 and primary target. Twitchy separator with YAC ability, alignment versatility and jet-sweep usage.
Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: 28.0 implied team total, 25% target share.
- TEN ranks 13 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 28.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
- Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 31% snap share.
Latest on Flowers
Zay Flowers returned from hamstring injury in Week 3 on a snap count targeting 20-25 snaps and is expected to carry closer to a full load against the Titans.
Baltimore Ravens · Sep 29, 2026The Ravens may be force to start rookie offensive guard Vega Ioane at center after losing two centers to injury in Sunday's win over the Cowboys.
Here are the other three players who overcame adversity to help Jackson produce one of the wildest finishes in Ravens history.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Isaiah Likely | Zay Flowers |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.49.611.7 | 10.613.015.3 |
| Consensus rank | TE14 | WR16 |
| Opponent vs position | ARI · 19 of 323-game sample | TEN · 13 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 17 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 23 of 32 | 20 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 18 of 32 | 7 of 32 |
| Targets | 9 of 32 | 5 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 26 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Target share | 28% | 25% |
| Reception share | 29% | 28% |
| Implied total · spread | 26.3-7.0 | 28.0-8.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR1 |
| Snap share | 67% | 31% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–2 | — |
Recent form
Isaiah Likely — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs TEN | 1.32.33.3 |
| Week 2 | vs LAR | 3.35.88.3 |
| Week 1 | vs DAL | 19.823.827.8 |
Zay Flowers — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs DAL | 10.412.915.4 |
| Week 2 | vs NO | 0.00.00.0 |
| Week 1 | vs IND | 21.023.526.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 11.7 vs 15.3 projected PPR pointsZay Flowers +
- Rank 14 vs 16Isaiah Likely +
- Opponent DvP rank 19 vs 13 (32 = softest)Isaiah Likely +
- Implied 26.3 vs 28.0 team pointsZay Flowers +
- No injury designationseven
- 67% vs 31% snap shareIsaiah Likely +
Compare different players
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