Isaiah Likely or Kyle Monangai: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Likely — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Isaiah Likely is the higher consensus play (TE14 to RB36) and projects 11.7 to Monangai's 8.4. Monangai's edge is the game script, 27.0 implied points to 26.3. The gap is wide.

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs ARI

Projected Points

Start· medium
Kyle Monangai

Kyle Monangai

RB36CHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Sit· medium

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-168 / +126
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 39.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+280
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Kyle Monangai’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 38.5
-114 / -110
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 0.5
-260 / +188
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 5.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+200
Anytime Touchdown Props →
ARI@
NYGSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

28% target share over 3 games in an offense implied for 26.3 points makes Likely a viable TE1 fringe start at TE14 despite a neutral matchup.

  • ARI ranks 19 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 7.0-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 67% snap share.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 28% target share is elite for a tight end and gives him a stable PPR floor, even at a 67% snap share.
  • Game environment helps. A 26.3 implied team total and a -7.0 spread point to plenty of scoring chances, including red-zone looks.
  • The matchup is neutral at 19 of 32, and it rests on a thin 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
  • The 11.7 projection and TE14 rank put him on the TE1/TE2 border. With no injury designation, he's a start over typical replacement-level tight ends in 12-team leagues.

Why Kyle Monangai

Sit· medium

RB2 and complementary early-down back. Compact, decisive downhill runner with productive rookie-year workload.

36% snap share and 4% target share cap his PPR floor; RB36 at 8.4 projected needs a TD even with the -8.5 favorable script vs NYJ.

  • NYJ ranks 16 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 36% snap share.

The call

  • Role is the problem: a 36% snap share and 4% target share over 3 games make him a part-time back with almost no receiving work, which hurts in PPR.
  • The game script is a real plus. A 27.0 implied team total and a -8.5 spread point to a positive, run-heavy second half where a complementary back can pile up late carries.
  • The matchup is neutral at 16 of 32. It rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it gives no real push either way.
  • At RB36 and 8.4 projected points he sits around replacement level in 12-team leagues. That gives a slight lean to bench him for a back with a steadier share. Script-driven touchdown upside is what would tip him into a flex spot in deeper formats.

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyKyle Monangai
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14RB36
Opponent vs positionARI · 19 of 323-game sampleNYJ · 16 of 323-game sample
Receptions17 of 3217 of 32
Receiving Yards23 of 3221 of 32
Receiving TDs18 of 32—
Targets9 of 32—
Anytime TD26 of 3225 of 32
Rushing Yards—10 of 32
Rushing TDs—17 of 32
Rushing Attempts—4 of 32
Target share28%4%
Reception share29%6%
Implied total · spread26.3-7.027.0-8.5
Depth chartTE1RB2
Snap share67%36%
Start/Sit record1–21–0

Recent form

Isaiah Likely — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs TEN
Week 2vs LAR
Week 1vs DAL

Kyle Monangai — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Signal breakdown

  • 11.7 vs 8.4 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Rank 14 vs 36Isaiah Likely +
  • Opponent DvP rank 19 vs 16 (32 = softest)Isaiah Likely +
  • Implied 26.3 vs 27.0 team pointsKyle Monangai +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 67% vs 36% snap shareIsaiah Likely +

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