Isaiah Likely or Kalif Raymond: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Likely — the projection and matchup edges are too wide to ignore.
Isaiah Likely projects 11.7 to Raymond's 10.1 and draws the softer matchup (ARI ranks 19 of 32 against TEs; NYJ ranks 13). Raymond's edge is the game script, 27.0 implied points to 26.3. The gap is narrow.
Isaiah Likely
TE14NYGvs ARI
7.59.611.7 Projected Points
Start· medium
Kalif Raymond
WRCHIvs NYJ
5.57.810.1 Projected Points
Start· medium
Isaiah Likely’s market
Kalif Raymond’s market
Why Isaiah Likely
Start· mediumStarting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.
28% target share over 3 games in an offense implied for 26.3 points makes Likely a viable TE1 fringe start at TE14 despite a neutral matchup.
- ARI ranks 19 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 7.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 67% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the driver: a 28% target share is elite for a tight end and gives him a stable PPR floor, even at a 67% snap share.
- Game environment helps. A 26.3 implied team total and a -7.0 spread point to plenty of scoring chances, including red-zone looks.
- The matchup is neutral at 19 of 32, and it rests on a thin 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
- The 11.7 projection and TE14 rank put him on the TE1/TE2 border. With no injury designation, he's a start over typical replacement-level tight ends in 12-team leagues.
Why Kalif Raymond
Start· mediumVeteran WR3 and slot/return specialist. Undersized speed piece with quickness and punt-return value.
23% target share in an offense implied for 27.0 points makes Raymond a viable flex despite a middling NYJ matchup (13 of 32).
- NYJ ranks 13 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
- Listed WR-3 on the latest depth chart with a 66% snap share.
The call
- Usage carries the case. A 23% target share on 66% of snaps over 3 games is more volume than the WR-3 depth-chart label suggests, and in PPR that floor matters.
- Game environment is strong. A 27.0 implied team total and an -8.5 spread point to a productive offense with plenty of scoring chances.
- The matchup is a mild drag, not a red flag. NYJ ranks 13 of 32 vs WRs, slightly tougher than average, but that comes from a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so we weight it lightly.
- Risk: a 10.1-point projection is flex-level. As a heavy favorite the team could lean on the run late, and a WR-3 can lose snaps in that script. He has no injury designation, so availability isn't a concern.
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Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Isaiah Likely | Kalif Raymond |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.59.611.7 | 5.57.810.1 |
| Consensus rank | TE14 | — |
| Opponent vs position | ARI · 19 of 323-game sample | NYJ · 13 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 17 of 32 | 19 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 24 of 32 | 4 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 17 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Targets | 9 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 26 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Target share | 28% | 23% |
| Reception share | 29% | 29% |
| Implied total · spread | 26.3-7.0 | 27.0-8.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR3 |
| Snap share | 67% | 66% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–2 | — |
Recent form
Isaiah Likely — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs TEN | 1.32.33.3 |
| Week 2 | vs LAR | 3.35.88.3 |
| Week 1 | vs DAL | 19.823.827.8 |
Kalif Raymond — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs PHI | 15.018.021.0 |
| Week 2 | vs MIN | 4.06.59.0 |
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 8.412.416.4 |
Signal breakdown
- 11.7 vs 10.1 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 19 vs 13 (32 = softest)Isaiah Likely +
- Implied 26.3 vs 27.0 team pointsKalif Raymond +
- No injury designationseven
- 67% vs 66% snap shareIsaiah Likely +
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