Greg Dulcich or Terrance Ferguson: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Dulcich's clean bill of health cancels out Ferguson's plusher matchup and game script

Neither of these is a good start, and the deterministic call reflects that reality rather than papering over it. Dulcich gets the tougher matchup of the two by DvP and plays in a lower-scoring game, but he's fully healthy and has carried a slightly larger role in the passing game all year. Ferguson sits in a much friendlier matchup with a far juicier implied total for his offense, which matters for a rotational receiving-TE, but he's questionable and has barely been targeted, so the upside is more theoretical than real. Whichever way you lean, you're chasing touchdown equity in a shallow target share, not floor.

What flips it: A Friday questionable-to-out designation for Ferguson would tip this clearly to Dulcich.

AI editor

Greg Dulcich

TE24MIAvs LV

4.15.67.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Terrance Ferguson

TE22LARvs SF

5.36.78.1 Projected Points

Sit

Why Greg Dulcich

Toss-Up

TE1 in receiving role. Seam-stretching athlete with injury-marked career arc and limited blocking value.

Toss-up — TE24 by consensus and projection: LV is the 5th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 14% target share in 2025.

Full go with no injury tag removes the bust risk that comes with Ferguson's questionable status.
A slightly higher target share all season suggests he's the more established piece in a receiving-only role.

Why Terrance Ferguson

Sit

Rotational TE in pass-catching role. Movement-Y receiver with developing target share.

Sit — TE22 by consensus and projection: SF is the 8th-softest matchup vs TEs, 25.8 implied team total.

Plays in a game with a much higher implied total for his own offense, which raises his touchdown equity even on low volume.
Faces one of the softer matchups at the position, unlike Dulcich who draws a stingier defense.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Greg Dulcich	Terrance Ferguson
Projected points	4.15.67.1	5.36.78.1
Consensus rank	TE24	TE22
Opponent vs position	LV · 5 of 320-game sample	SF · 25 of 320-game sample
Receptions	3 of 32	22 of 32
Receiving Yards	3 of 32	21 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	26 of 32
Targets	3 of 32	30 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	26 of 32
Target share	14%(2025)	7%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	4%(2025)
Implied total · spread	19.3+3.0	25.8-3.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE3
Snap share	44%(2025)	44%(2025)
Injury designation	—	Q