Evan McPherson or Harrison Butker: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Evan McPherson and Harrison Butker grade out even this week. McPherson's best edge is the game script (27.0 implied points to 22.5), Butker's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 1.1 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Evan McPherson

Evan McPherson

K13CINvs TB

Projected Points

Start· medium
Harrison Butker

Harrison Butker

K10KCvs DEN

Projected Points

Start· medium
TB@
CINSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DEN@
KCMon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETView the game →

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total, calm open-roof conditions and an 89% (25/28) leg make McPherson a clean K13 play with 1.7 FGs and 2.7 XPs projected.

  • Calm forecast at kickoff.
  • 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Cincinnati's 27.0 implied total is the driver here — that volume of scoring means 2.7 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, giving him a high floor for the K slot.
  • He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation and elite accuracy at 89% (25/28) this season, plus 50-plus range shown in 4 games and a 63-yard long, so the upside on long tries is real.
  • Calm forecast in an open-roof stadium removes the wind/weather variable that separates kickers most weeks.
  • Mild caution: only 1.9 attempts projected and 1.1 red-zone stalls per game means he's leaning on touchdown-drive extra points rather than stalled-drive field goals, so a low-scoring script would cap him.

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K10 with 8.5 projected, 87% accuracy and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game — Butker is a top-12 play even with 14 mph wind.

  • 13 mph wind at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
  • 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
  • KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has KC at 22.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.

The call

  • Consensus K10 at 8.5 projected points is squarely inside 12-team starting range; you're not upgrading off him with a replacement-level kicker.
  • The volume profile is strong: 2.1 attempts and 2.1 extra points off a 22.5 implied team total, and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep feeding him field-goal tries.
  • He's automatic when the chances come — 87% (33/38) with a 59-yard long and 50-plus makes in five games, so range isn't a limiter.
  • The one drag is 14 mph wind under an open roof, which can shave the long attempts; that's the difference between a fine week and a spike week, not a reason to bench a K10.

Latest on Butker

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricEvan McPhersonHarrison Butker
Projected points
Consensus rankK13K10
Projected FG attempts1.92.1
Red-zone stalls / game1.1(2025)1.5(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoff13 mph wind forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread27.0-3.522.5-2.5
Field-goal %89.3%(2025)86.8%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 8.5 vs 8.5 projected PPR pointsEvan McPherson +
  • Rank 13 vs 10Harrison Butker +
  • 1.9 vs 2.1 projected attemptsHarrison Butker +
  • 1.1 vs 1.5 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Butker +
  • 8 mph, 86°F, overcast vs 13 mph, 89°F, clearEvan McPherson +
  • Implied 27.0 vs 22.5 team pointsEvan McPherson +
  • No injury designationseven

Compare different players

Week 1227 players
Player A
vs
Player B

Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.

More McPherson comparisons

More Butker comparisons

This week’s toughest calls

Start/Sit Board•Weekly Rankings•Streamers•Sleepers & Busts•My Team•MLB NRFI Board•Free Tools•NFL Props•NFL Games

Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →

Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.

Add to My Team — free

Or browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.