DeVonta Smith or Tyler Warren: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Warren’s TE edge makes him the narrow choice over Smith
Start Warren over Smith, but the call is tight: Smith’s stronger target share and softer matchup give him a real path to the better line. Warren’s advantage is the value of an elite tight-end standing, backed by a receiving role that also gives him ways to contribute beyond standard routes. The risk is that Warren’s smaller share of the offense leaves Smith’s volume advantage decisive; both remain starts.
What flips it: Smith turning his target-share advantage into a clear weekly scoring gap.
AI editor
DeVonta Smith
9.312.215.1 Projected Points
Tyler Warren
7.710.413.0 Projected Points
DeVonta Smith’s market
Tyler Warren’s market
Why DeVonta Smith
StartWR1-caliber outside receiver. Elite route technician with reliable hands and high target volume.
Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: 33% target share, 15.1 PPR projected vs LAR.
- Smith’s polished outside routes support a high-volume role without needing gadget touches.
- His softer matchup gives his target advantage a favorable setting.
Latest on Smith
The Eagles' go-to guy in key moments has always seen himself as WR1 -- now everyone else is just catching up.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tyler Warren
StartTE1 and high-volume mismatch receiver. Move-piece with contested-catch strength and gadget rushing usage.
Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE4: WSH is the 10th-softest matchup vs TEs, 24.5 implied team total.
- Warren’s mismatch-receiver profile and gadget rushing offer more than conventional tight-end usage.
- His recent production has been steady, supporting confidence in his every-week role.
Latest on Warren
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Colts-Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | DeVonta Smith | Tyler Warren |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.312.215.1 | 7.710.413.0 |
| Consensus rank | WR16 | TE4 |
| Opponent vs position | LAR · 12 of 323-game sample | WSH · 23 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 1 of 32 | 13 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 6 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 24 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Targets | 4 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 24 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Target share | 33% | 23% |
| Reception share | 34% | 28% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0+1.5 | 24.5+1.5 |
| Depth chart | WR1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 94% | 92% |
Recent form
DeVonta Smith — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CHI | 6.59.512.5 |
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 17.722.727.7 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | 5.36.88.3 |
Tyler Warren — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs HOU | 5.710.214.7 |
| Week 2 | vs KC | 8.411.414.4 |
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 7.38.810.3 |
Signal breakdown
- 15.1 vs 13.0 projected PPR pointsDeVonta Smith +
- Rank 16 vs 4Tyler Warren +
- Opponent DvP rank 12 vs 23 (32 = softest)Tyler Warren +
- Implied 23.0 vs 24.5 team pointsTyler Warren +
- No injury designationseven
- 94% vs 92% snap shareDeVonta Smith +
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