DeVonta Smith or Tyler Warren: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Warren’s TE edge makes him the narrow choice over Smith

Start Warren over Smith, but the call is tight: Smith’s stronger target share and softer matchup give him a real path to the better line. Warren’s advantage is the value of an elite tight-end standing, backed by a receiving role that also gives him ways to contribute beyond standard routes. The risk is that Warren’s smaller share of the offense leaves Smith’s volume advantage decisive; both remain starts.

What flips it: Smith turning his target-share advantage into a clear weekly scoring gap.

AI editor

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith

WR16PHIvs LAR

Projected Points

Start
Tyler Warren

Tyler Warren

TE4INDvs WSH

Projected Points

Start

DeVonta Smith’s market

REC
O/U 5.5
-154 / +116
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 68.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →

Tyler Warren’s market

REC
O/U 5.5
+100 / -128
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 46.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →

Why DeVonta Smith

Start

WR1-caliber outside receiver. Elite route technician with reliable hands and high target volume.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: 33% target share, 15.1 PPR projected vs LAR.

  • Smith’s polished outside routes support a high-volume role without needing gadget touches.
  • His softer matchup gives his target advantage a favorable setting.

Latest on Smith

The Eagles' go-to guy in key moments has always seen himself as WR1 -- now everyone else is just catching up.

ESPN · Sep 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tyler Warren

Start

TE1 and high-volume mismatch receiver. Move-piece with contested-catch strength and gadget rushing usage.

Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE4: WSH is the 10th-softest matchup vs TEs, 24.5 implied team total.

  • Warren’s mismatch-receiver profile and gadget rushing offer more than conventional tight-end usage.
  • His recent production has been steady, supporting confidence in his every-week role.

Latest on Warren

VideoESPN · Sep 21, 2026

Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Colts-Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football."

ESPN · Sep 20, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDeVonta SmithTyler Warren
Projected points
Consensus rankWR16TE4
Opponent vs positionLAR · 12 of 323-game sampleWSH · 23 of 323-game sample
Receptions1 of 3213 of 32
Receiving Yards6 of 3226 of 32
Receiving TDs24 of 3230 of 32
Targets4 of 3214 of 32
Anytime TD24 of 3230 of 32
Target share33%23%
Reception share34%28%
Implied total · spread23.0+1.524.5+1.5
Depth chartWR1TE1
Snap share94%92%

Recent form

DeVonta Smith — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CHI
Week 2vs TEN
Week 1vs WSH

Tyler Warren — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs HOU
Week 2vs KC
Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 15.1 vs 13.0 projected PPR pointsDeVonta Smith +
  • Rank 16 vs 4Tyler Warren +
  • Opponent DvP rank 12 vs 23 (32 = softest)Tyler Warren +
  • Implied 23.0 vs 24.5 team pointsTyler Warren +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 94% vs 92% snap shareDeVonta Smith +

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