Derrick Henry or Jaylen Warren: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Derrick Henry: Baltimore’s scoring outlook favors his goal-line role
Henry’s edge is the stronger scoring runway for a power back whose bio emphasizes goal-line dominance; the consensus gap supports the call, though it doesn’t make it a runaway. Warren’s heavier workload and receiving role keep him firmly in the mix, and his career-best 176-yard outing shows the upside (ESPN 2026-09-28). Henry’s main risk is his thinner passing-game role: if he doesn’t turn Baltimore’s scoring chances into rushing production, Warren’s receiving work can close the gap.
What flips it: Warren’s receiving role outproduces Henry’s rushing advantage.
Sources: ESPN · Sep 28, 2026
AI editor
Derrick Henry
18.819.520.2 Projected Points
Jaylen Warren
13.415.016.6 Projected Points
Derrick Henry’s market
Jaylen Warren’s market
Why Derrick Henry
StartRB1 and workhorse power back. Elite size-speed tackle-breaker with heavy volume and goal-line dominance.
Start — every-week RB start at consensus RB9: 28.0 implied team total, 7% target share.
- His workhorse power profile gives Baltimore’s favorable game script a direct path to high-value rushing chances.
- No availability designation means there’s no health caveat to weaken the preferred play.
Latest on Henry
Derrick Henry still has some feelings about how his Tennessee tenure ended.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry faces his former team, the Titans, on Sunday for the first time since leaving Tennessee after the 2023 season. He said it's "always love" for the Titans, just not much when they play on Sunday.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Jaylen Warren
Start· mediumRB1 and lead back. Compact, contact-balance runner with reliable third-down pass-protection and receiving work.
66% snap share and 13% target share give Warren a locked-in workhorse role, with a 16.6 PPR projection and a -2.5 favorite script.
- Warren’s receiving work offers a way to keep scoring when rushing opportunities are limited.
- His more favorable matchup gives him a counterweight to Henry’s better team scoring outlook.
The call
- Role is the driver. A 66% snap share over 3 games plus a 13% target share gives him a stable PPR floor that most RB2/flex options lack.
- Game script helps. Pittsburgh is a -2.5 home-side favorite with a 21.5 implied total, which points to positive rushing volume and some goal-line chances.
- The matchup is a mild negative. CLE grades 11 of 32 against RBs (32 = softest), but that comes from a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh the usage.
- Headlines report a career-best 176-yard day against the Bengals, but those are unverified. His RB29 consensus rank also sits oddly low next to a 16.6 projection. Treat him as a solid flex/RB2 start rather than a locked-in RB1.
Latest on Warren
Brooke Pryor breaks down Jaylen Warren's incredible performance against the Bengals in Week 3.
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren exploded for a career-best 176 yards from scrimmage in a dominant display for Pittsburgh's run game in Sunday's win.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Derrick Henry | Jaylen Warren |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 18.819.520.2 | 13.415.016.6 |
| Consensus rank | RB9 | RB29 |
| Opponent vs position | TEN · 17 of 323-game sample | CLE · 11 of 323-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 25 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Rushing TDs | 17 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Rushing Attempts | 31 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Receptions | 6 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 9 of 32 | 5 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 13 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 7% | 13% |
| Reception share | 9% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 28.0-8.5 | 21.5-2.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | RB1 |
| Snap share | 58% | 66% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–0+3 toss-ups |
Recent form
Derrick Henry — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs DAL | 20.921.421.9 |
| Week 2 | vs NO | 14.716.217.7 |
| Week 1 | vs IND | 34.334.835.3 |
Jaylen Warren — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CIN | 17.619.120.6 |
| Week 2 | vs NE | 7.78.79.7 |
| Week 1 | vs ATL | 5.37.810.3 |
Signal breakdown
- 20.2 vs 16.6 projected PPR pointsDerrick Henry +
- Rank 9 vs 29Derrick Henry +
- Opponent DvP rank 17 vs 11 (32 = softest)Derrick Henry +
- Implied 28.0 vs 21.5 team pointsDerrick Henry +
- No injury designationseven
- 58% vs 66% snap shareJaylen Warren +
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