Broncos D/ST or Saints D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start the Saints — the projection and opponent giveaway edges are too wide to ignore.

Saints D/ST projects 6.6 to the Broncos's 3.8 and faces the more giveaway-prone offense (4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers allowed per game to 1.7 and 2.0). the Broncos's edge is lineup share, started rank 9 to 23. The gap is narrow.

Broncos D/ST

D/STDENvs LAR

Projected Points

Sit

Saints D/ST

D/STNOvs LV

Projected Points

Start· medium
LAR@
DENSun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETView the game →
LV@
NOSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Broncos D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 26): Vegas has LAR at 24.3 points, and 3.8 pts projected vs LAR.

  • LAR's offense gives up 1.7 sacks and 2.0 turnovers a game, near league average.
  • Vegas has LAR at 24.3 points as 3-point favorites.
  • Over-started: 53% of leagues have them in, 9th among defenses, against a No. 26 matchup.

Why Saints D/ST

Start· medium

DST7 projection (6.6) at home vs a Raiders line giving up 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers per game, with LV implied for just 19.5.

  • LV's offense gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), well above league average.
  • Vegas has LV at 19.5 points as 3.5-point dogs.
  • Under-started: only 4% of leagues have them in, 23rd among defenses, against a No. 7 matchup.

The call

  • Opponent giveaways drive this: Las Vegas allowed 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers per game over 17 games, a strong floor for sack and takeaway points.
  • Game script sets up well. The Saints are 3.5-point home favorites and LV's implied total is only 19.5, in line with the 19.0 points-allowed projection.
  • The DST7 ranking and 6.6 projected points put this defense squarely in startable range in 12-team leagues, backed by 2.0 projected sacks and 0.9 interceptions.
  • Only 4% of leagues start it (crowd rank 23 of 32), so it's likely on waivers. The projection hasn't reached lineup share yet, and that's an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

Head-to-head stats

MetricBroncos D/STSaints D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST26Proj.DST7
Started in53% of leagues4% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game1.74.0(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game2.01.4(2025)
Opponent implied total24.319.5
Home / awayHomeHome
Start/Sit record1–0—

Recent form

Broncos D/ST — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs JAX
Week 1vs KC

Saints D/ST — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Signal breakdown

  • 3.8 vs 6.6 projected PPR pointsSaints D/ST +
  • Started rank 9 vs 23 (53% vs 4% of leagues)Broncos D/ST +
  • 1.7 sacks / 2.0 TO vs 4.0 sacks / 1.4 TO per game allowedSaints D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 24.3 vs 19.5 pointsSaints D/ST +
  • Home vs Homeeven

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