Deebo Samuel Sr. or Kalif Raymond: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Deebo Samuel Sr. and Kalif Raymond grade out even this week. Samuel's best edge is the projection (10.8 to 10.1), Raymond's best edge is the game script (27.0 implied points to 24.5) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR53SFvs DEN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
Kalif Raymond

Kalif Raymond

WRCHIvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· medium

Deebo Samuel Sr.’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+155

Kalif Raymond’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
+111 / -142
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 31.5
-110 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+390
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DEN@
SFSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
NYJ@
CHISun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Toss-Up· low

Starting WR and hybrid weapon. Yards-after-catch bully used on jet sweeps and manufactured touches.

WR53 rank, 14% target share and a tough DEN matchup (8 of 32) undercut the start-lean; a 24.5 implied total keeps him flex-viable.

  • DEN ranks 9 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 59% snap share.

The call

  • The house leans start, but a WR53 consensus rank and a 10.7 PPR projection put him at or below replacement for a 12-team flex. That is the concrete reason to pull back to a toss-up.
  • Matchup: Denver ranks 8 of 32 on the DvP composite, which is on the tougher side. It comes from only a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so the signal is soft rather than damning.
  • Role: As the WR-2 with a 59% snap share and a 14% target share, his volume is modest and he needs efficiency or a splash play to return value.
  • Game script helps. A 24.5 implied team total and a -2.5 spread point to a functional, competitive offense, and he carries no injury designation. Start him if your alternative is a lower-volume dart throw; sit him for any flex option ranked inside the WR45 or RB range.

Latest on Samuel

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Kalif Raymond

Start· medium

Veteran WR3 and slot/return specialist. Undersized speed piece with quickness and punt-return value.

23% target share on a 27.0 implied total backs a 10.1-point projection; neutral NYJ matchup (14 of 32) keeps him a flex-level start.

  • NYJ ranks 13 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
  • Listed WR-3 on the latest depth chart with a 66% snap share.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 23% target share over 3 games is strong for a WR-3, though a 66% snap share means he isn't on the field every down.
  • Game environment helps: a 27.0 implied team total and -8.5 spread point to a productive offense. A big lead could shift volume to the run late.
  • Matchup is neutral, not a boost: NYJ ranks 14 of 32 vs WRs, but on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so lean on role over DvP.
  • A 10.1 PPR projection with no injury designation clears typical replacement level in 12-team leagues. The ESPN headline adds no verified news, so confidence stays medium.

Latest on Raymond

Fantasy football last-minute pickups for Week 4: Raymond, Allen, Waller among top options

If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.

ESPN · Oct 2, 2026
How to bet Eagles-Bears on MNF: Analysis, tips and favorite plays

Odds and analysis to help you bet Eagles-Bears on "Monday Night Football."

ESPN · Sep 28, 2026
Kalif Raymond proving to be reliable veteran target for Bears offense

Despite being the Bears' leading receiver in their Week 1 win over the Panthers, Kalif Raymond is focused more on the team's success than his personal stats, saying, "I don’t really look at that stuff ... we won, and that’s all I’m thinking about."

chicagobears.com · Sep 18, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDeebo Samuel Sr.Kalif Raymond
Projected points
Consensus rankWR53—
Opponent vs positionDEN · 9 of 323-game sampleNYJ · 13 of 323-game sample
Receptions1 of 3219 of 32
Receiving Yards15 of 324 of 32
Receiving TDs8 of 3215 of 32
Targets12 of 3215 of 32
Anytime TD7 of 3214 of 32
Target share14%23%
Reception share15%29%
Implied total · spread24.5-2.527.0-8.5
Depth chartWR2WR3
Snap share59%66%
Start/Sit record1–0+3 toss-ups—

Recent form

Deebo Samuel Sr. — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs ARI
Week 2vs MIA
Week 1vs LAR

Kalif Raymond — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs PHI
Week 2vs MIN
Week 1vs CAR

Signal breakdown

  • 10.8 vs 10.1 projected PPR pointsDeebo Samuel Sr. +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 9 vs 13 (32 = softest)Kalif Raymond +
  • Implied 24.5 vs 27.0 team pointsKalif Raymond +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 59% vs 66% snap shareKalif Raymond +

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