David Montgomery or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Montgomery's goal-line path meets Kraft's every-down TE value

Montgomery’s downhill, goal-line role gives him a clear route to a touchdown in a Houston offense expected to score, but limited receiving involvement leaves less cushion if he doesn’t finish a drive. Kraft counters with the stronger position-relative standing and a primary seam role; PFF 2026-09-26 confirms the feared early-season snap limit did not materialize. Montgomery’s scoring role and Kraft’s heavier involvement balance out, though Montgomery’s recent week-to-week swing is the main risk in this call.

What flips it: A confirmed workload restriction for Kraft would break the balance toward Montgomery.

Sources: PFF · Sep 26, 2026

AI editor

In standard scoring this flips to Montgomery.

David Montgomery

David Montgomery

RB22HOUvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium
Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft

TE9GBvs TB

Projected Points

Start· medium

David Montgomery’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 44.5
-114 / -110
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
-123 / -104
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 10.5
-112 / -112
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
-135
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Tucker Kraft’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-149 / +117
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 39.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+230
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DAL@
HOUSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
GB@
TBSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why David Montgomery

Start· medium

RB1 and lead back. Powerful downhill runner with contact balance and reliable short-yardage/goal-line role.

RB22 at 13.5 projected with a 55% snap share and a 25.0 implied total as a 2.5-point favorite. That's a solid RB2 floor in a neutral matchup.

  • His short-yardage job offers a direct path to points beyond his ordinary rushing workload.
  • Low target involvement makes his floor more dependent on Houston converting drives into touchdowns.

The call

  • Consensus RB22 with a 13.5-point PPR projection puts him squarely in 12-team RB2/flex territory, above typical replacement options.
  • Game script helps: his team is a 2.5-point favorite with a healthy 25.0 implied total, which supports rushing volume and goal-line chances.
  • Matchup is roughly neutral. DAL ranks 21 of 32 in DvP, slightly on the soft side, but that rests on a 3-game sample with only 0.25 confidence, so don't lean on it.
  • Risk: a 6% target share caps his PPR ceiling, and a 55% snap share means he splits work. He's touchdown-dependent, which keeps confidence at medium.

Why Tucker Kraft

Start· medium

TE1 and primary seam threat. Physical yards-after-catch producer and capable in-line blocker; returning from injury.

Consensus TE9 with an 80% snap share and no snap count per PFF. A top-12 TE role is a start in 12-team leagues despite a neutral matchup.

  • The primary seam role gives him a way to deliver value without needing a goal-line score.
  • His return from injury remains a consideration, even with no current availability designation.

The call

  • Role is locked in. Kraft has an 80% snap share over 3 games, and PFF reported he 'rarely left the field in Week 3' despite early snap-count talk. For a tight end, that is every-down usage.
  • Consensus TE9 at 8.9 projected PPR points puts him inside the starting tier at a thin position. A typical replacement option on waivers projects lower.
  • The TB matchup is neutral at 19 of 32 on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it doesn't push either way. A 24.5 implied team total and -1.5 spread point to a competitive, scoring-friendly script.
  • The main risk is a modest 14% target share, which caps his floor. I'm breaking from the house toss-up lean because full-time snaps plus a TE9 rank clear the bar. He is still a start rather than a lock.

Latest on Kraft

Role

Tucker Kraft rarely left the field in Week 3 despite suggestions he could be on a snap count early in the season.

PFF · Sep 26, 2026
How to bet Falcons-Packers on TNF: Analysis, tips and top plays

Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Falcons-Packers on "Thursday Night Football."

ESPN · Sep 24, 2026
Contract extension is dream come true for Tucker Kraft

Packers tight end eager to rise to the occasion, win games

packers.com · Sep 18, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDavid MontgomeryTucker Kraft
Projected points
Consensus rankRB22TE9
Opponent vs positionDAL · 21 of 323-game sampleTB · 19 of 323-game sample
Rushing Yards28 of 32—
Rushing TDs25 of 32—
Rushing Attempts29 of 32—
Receptions9 of 3219 of 32
Receiving Yards8 of 3221 of 32
Anytime TD25 of 3218 of 32
Receiving TDs—18 of 32
Targets—18 of 32
Target share6%14%
Reception share10%14%
Implied total · spread25.0-2.524.5-1.5
Depth chartRB1TE1
Snap share55%80%
Start/Sit record0–1+2 toss-ups0–3

Recent form

David Montgomery — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs IND
Week 2vs CIN
Week 1vs BUF

Tucker Kraft — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs ATL
Week 2vs NYJ
Week 1vs MIN

Signal breakdown

  • 13.5 vs 8.9 projected PPR pointsDavid Montgomery +
  • Rank 22 vs 9Tucker Kraft +
  • Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 19 (32 = softest)David Montgomery +
  • Implied 25.0 vs 24.5 team pointsDavid Montgomery +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 55% vs 80% snap shareTucker Kraft +

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