Darren Waller or Sam LaPorta: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start LaPorta — the projection and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.
Sam LaPorta projects 11.2 to Waller's 9.3 and plays a 90% snap share to Waller's 43%. Waller's edge is the matchup, 32 of 32 to 18. The gap is comfortable.
Darren Waller
5.87.69.3 Projected Points
Sam LaPorta
6.89.011.2 Projected Points
Darren Waller’s market
Sam LaPorta’s market
Why Darren Waller
Toss-Up· lowBackup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.
Softest DvP (32 of 32) and team-leading receptions/targets per CBS, but 43% snap share and a thin 3-game sample keep him borderline TE1.
- DET ranks 32 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 43% snap share.
The call
- Matchup grades as the softest in the league vs TEs (32 of 32), but it rests on a 3-game sample with only 0.25 confidence, so don't overweight it.
- CBS Sports (2026-09-29) reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs through three games, which is a real usage signal at a thin position.
- The workload is the red flag. A 43% snap share and 12% target share are part-time numbers, and his 9.3 projected points sit in fringe TE1 territory.
- A 22.3 implied team total is middling. Tip it to start if your alternative is a low-volume streamer; sit if you have an established TE with a full-time snap role. ESPN's top-10 TE take is a headline only.
Latest on Waller
Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.
CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.
The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Sam LaPorta
Start· highTE1 and pass-catching mismatch. Reliable seam and intermediate target when healthy.
TE8 projection (11.2 PPR) with a 90% snap share and 18% target share on a 25.3 implied total — locked-in every-week TE1.
- CAR ranks 18 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 25.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 90% snap share.
The call
- Role is the anchor: a 90% snap share and 18% target share over three games is elite usage at a thin position, and he carries no injury designation.
- Game environment helps: a 25.3 implied team total as a 3-point favorite points to plenty of scoring chances and a neutral-to-positive script.
- The matchup is middling at 18 of 32 vs TEs, but that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle against his usage.
- At TE8 with an 11.2-point projection, he clears typical replacement-level tight ends comfortably, consistent with the model's start-lean.
Latest on LaPorta
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Darren Waller | Sam LaPorta |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.87.69.3 | 6.89.011.2 |
| Consensus rank | — | TE8 |
| Opponent vs position | DET · 32 of 323-game sample | CAR · 18 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 32 of 32 | 8 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 32 of 32 | 11 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 32 of 32 | 27 of 32 |
| Targets | 32 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 32 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Target share | 12% | 18% |
| Reception share | 14% | 18% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.3+3.0 | 25.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | TE2 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 43% | 90% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | 1–2 |
Recent form
Darren Waller — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CLE | 5.17.610.1 |
| Week 2 | vs ATL | 15.316.818.3 |
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 2.83.84.8 |
Sam LaPorta — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs NYJ | 4.45.97.4 |
| Week 2 | vs BUF | 11.214.217.2 |
| Week 1 | vs NO | 4.87.39.8 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.3 vs 11.2 projected PPR pointsSam LaPorta +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 32 vs 18 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
- Implied 22.3 vs 25.3 team pointsSam LaPorta +
- No injury designationseven
- 43% vs 90% snap shareSam LaPorta +
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