Darren Waller or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Andrews — the game script and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.

Mark Andrews plays in the better game script (28.0 implied team points to 22.3) and plays a 65% snap share to Waller's 43%. Waller's edge is the matchup, 32 of 32 to 5. The gap is narrow.

Darren Waller

Darren Waller

TECARvs DET

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs TEN

Projected Points

Start· medium

Darren Waller’s market

REC
O/U 2.5
-166 / +124
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 27.5
-115 / -109
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+255
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Mark Andrews’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-156 / +122
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 36.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+145
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DET@
CARSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETView the game →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Darren Waller

Toss-Up· low

Backup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.

Softest DvP (32 of 32) and team-leading receptions/targets per CBS, but 43% snap share and a thin 3-game sample keep him borderline TE1.

  • DET ranks 32 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 43% snap share.

The call

  • Matchup grades as the softest in the league vs TEs (32 of 32), but it rests on a 3-game sample with only 0.25 confidence, so don't overweight it.
  • CBS Sports (2026-09-29) reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs through three games, which is a real usage signal at a thin position.
  • The workload is the red flag. A 43% snap share and 12% target share are part-time numbers, and his 9.3 projected points sit in fringe TE1 territory.
  • A 22.3 implied team total is middling. Tip it to start if your alternative is a low-volume streamer; sit if you have an established TE with a full-time snap role. ESPN's top-10 TE take is a headline only.

Latest on Waller

Role

Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.

CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026
Fantasy football last-minute pickups for Week 4: Raymond, Allen, Waller among top options

If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.

ESPN · Oct 2, 2026
Panthers' Bryce Young to Darren Waller has been money in red zone

The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.

ESPN · Sep 24, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

25% target share and a 28.0 implied total outweigh a tough TEN DvP (5 of 32) built on a thin 3-game sample; TE15 is a viable TE1-fringe start.

  • TEN ranks 5 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 28.0 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
  • Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 65% snap share.

The call

  • Usage is the anchor: a 25% target share is elite for a tight end, and a 65% snap share keeps him on the field enough to cash it in, even if he's not every-down.
  • Game environment is strong: a 28.0 implied team total and an -8.5 spread point to plenty of scoring chances. Red-zone looks for a target-hog TE come with that.
  • The matchup is the knock. TEN ranks 5 of 32 vs TEs, but that's a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence, so it shouldn't override his role. That's why confidence is medium, not high.
  • Health looks clean. He has no designation, and Yahoo reports a full practice Thursday with a hand ailment that hasn't limited him. The ESPN 'conflicted' headline is unverified and doesn't change the call. At 10.0 projected points (TE15), he's ahead of typical replacement-level streamers.

Latest on Andrews

Status

Mark Andrews was a full practice participant Thursday despite being listed on the injury report with a hand ailment that has not limited his practice participation.

Yahoo Sports · Oct 2, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDarren WallerMark Andrews
Projected points
Consensus rank—TE15
Opponent vs positionDET · 32 of 323-game sampleTEN · 5 of 323-game sample
Receptions32 of 326 of 32
Receiving Yards32 of 321 of 32
Receiving TDs32 of 321 of 32
Targets32 of 326 of 32
Anytime TD32 of 329 of 32
Target share12%25%
Reception share14%25%
Implied total · spread22.3+3.028.0-8.5
Depth chartTE2TE1
Snap share43%65%
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up1–2

Recent form

Darren Waller — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CLE
Week 2vs ATL
Week 1vs CHI

Mark Andrews — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs DAL
Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Signal breakdown

  • 9.3 vs 10.0 projected PPR pointsMark Andrews +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 32 vs 5 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
  • Implied 22.3 vs 28.0 team pointsMark Andrews +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 43% vs 65% snap shareMark Andrews +

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