Darren Waller or Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Darren Waller and Jacory Croskey-Merritt grade out even this week. Waller's best edge is the matchup (32 of 32 to 24), Croskey-Merritt's best edge is the game script (26.0 implied points to 22.3) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
In standard and half-PPR scoring this flips to Croskey-Merritt.
Darren Waller
5.87.69.3 Projected Points
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
8.89.09.2 Projected Points
Darren Waller’s market
Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s market
Why Darren Waller
Toss-Up· lowBackup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.
Softest TE matchup (32 of 32) and 2 TDs in 3 games pull him up, but a 43% snap share and 12% target share keep a 9.3-point floor shaky.
- DET ranks 32 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 43% snap share.
The call
- Matchup is the selling point: DET grades 32 of 32 vs TEs, the softest in the league, though it rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so treat it as a lean, not a lock.
- Production has been real. CBS Sports reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs through three games. The 22.3 implied team total supports another scoring chance.
- Usage is the red flag. A 43% snap share and 12% target share are part-time numbers for a TE, so his output leans on touchdowns. The ESPN top-10 headline is unverified.
- What tips it: start him over a TE with a similar 9-point projection but a weaker matchup. Sit him for any every-down TE with a steadier target share.
Latest on Waller
Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.
CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026If injuries or tough matchups have you seeking help, Matt Bowen provides options at each key position.
The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Jacory Croskey-Merritt
StartLead back and volume runner. Decisive one-cut rusher with tackle-breaking contact balance; limited passing-game work.
Start — RB41 consensus, projects RB34 this week: IND is the 9th-softest matchup vs RBs, 26.0 implied team total.
- IND ranks 24 of 32 against RBs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 26.0 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 48% snap share.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Darren Waller | Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.87.69.3 | 8.89.09.2 |
| Consensus rank | — | RB41 |
| Opponent vs position | DET · 32 of 323-game sample | IND · 24 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 32 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 32 of 32 | 29 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 32 of 32 | — |
| Targets | 32 of 32 | — |
| Anytime TD | 32 of 32 | 25 of 32 |
| Rushing Yards | — | 27 of 32 |
| Rushing TDs | — | 29 of 32 |
| Rushing Attempts | — | 21 of 32 |
| Target share | 12% | 3% |
| Reception share | 14% | 5% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.3+3.0 | 26.0-1.5 |
| Depth chart | TE2 | RB1 |
| Snap share | 43% | 48% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Recent form
Darren Waller — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CLE | 5.17.610.1 |
| Week 2 | vs ATL | 15.316.818.3 |
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 2.83.84.8 |
Jacory Croskey-Merritt — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs SEA | 4.34.85.3 |
| Week 2 | vs DAL | 4.85.35.8 |
| Week 1 | vs PHI | 11.612.112.6 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.3 vs 9.2 projected PPR pointsDarren Waller +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Opponent DvP rank 32 vs 24 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
- Implied 22.3 vs 26.0 team pointsJacory Croskey-Merritt +
- No injury designationseven
- 43% vs 48% snap shareJacory Croskey-Merritt +
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