Colston Loveland or Matthew Stafford: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Stafford — the projection and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Matthew Stafford projects 18.3 to Loveland's 11.4 and plays in the better game script (28.5 implied team points to 24.5). Loveland's edge is the consensus rank, TE3 to QB14. The gap is comfortable.
Colston Loveland
7.49.411.4 Projected Points
Matthew Stafford
18.318.318.3 Projected Points
Colston Loveland’s market
Matthew Stafford’s market
Why Colston Loveland
StartTE1 and pass-catching mismatch. Seam-stretching move tight end with flex alignment and rising target volume.
Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE3: 24.5 implied team total, 8% target share.
- MIN ranks 14 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 1-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 87% snap share.
Latest on Loveland
When even the "little guys" are getting a hat on a hat, it's that much easier to post 59 points and over 500 yards.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Matthew Stafford
Start· mediumVeteran starting QB and offensive centerpiece. Reigning NFL MVP who led the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns in 2025.
28.5 implied team total as an 8.5-point favorite gives Stafford a high-volume scoring script; QB14 at 18.3 projected plays as a low-end QB1.
- NYG ranks 15 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 1-game sample).
- Vegas implies 28.5 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 84% snap share.
The call
- A 28.5 implied team total is among the better marks on the board — Stafford should be throwing in a lot of scoring possessions, and touchdowns are what separate QB finishes.
- No injury designation and the locked QB1 slot means full-game volume with zero role ambiguity.
- The Giants defense grades 15 of 32 vs the position — dead neutral, so this is a script-and-volume start rather than a matchup exploit.
- The one drag: at -8.5 a comfortable lead can turn the fourth quarter run-heavy, capping the ceiling. That's why it's a confident low-end QB1 call, not a set-and-forget elite week.
Latest on Stafford
Los Angeles flew in the day before the game, but it was the Niners who walked away with the win.
Head coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford, outside linebacker Myles Garrett and defensive end Kobie Turner share their thoughts on the Rams Week 1 loss to the 49ers in Australia.
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay and QB Matthew Stafford both feel "well rested" after flying in less than 36 hours before the game, with Stafford saying it was "really well thought out".
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Colston Loveland | Matthew Stafford |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.49.411.4 | 18.318.318.3 |
| Consensus rank | TE3 | QB14 |
| Opponent vs position | MIN · 14 of 321-game sample | NYG · 15 of 321-game sample |
| Receptions | 14 of 32 | — |
| Receiving Yards | 31 of 32 | — |
| Receiving TDs | 1 of 32 | — |
| Targets | 24 of 32 | — |
| Anytime TD | 1 of 32 | — |
| Passing Yards | — | 9 of 32 |
| Passing TDs | — | 17 of 32 |
| Passing Completions | — | 21 of 32 |
| Passing Attempts | — | 22 of 32 |
| Interceptions | — | 5 of 32 |
| Target share | 8% | — |
| Reception share | 0% | — |
| Implied total · spread | 24.5-3.5 | 28.5-8.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | QB1 |
| Snap share | 87% | 84% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–1 |
Recent form
Colston Loveland — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 0.00.00.0 |
Matthew Stafford — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs SF | 4.14.14.1 |
Signal breakdown
- 11.4 vs 18.3 projected PPR pointsMatthew Stafford +
- Rank 3 vs 14Colston Loveland +
- Opponent DvP rank 14 vs 15 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 24.5 vs 28.5 team pointsMatthew Stafford +
- No injury designationseven
- 87% vs 84% snap shareColston Loveland +
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