Isaiah Likely or Jaylen Warren: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Usage is the case: a 28% target share plus 17 slot snaps — work previously held by Wan'Dale Robinson — means Likely is a primary target in this passing game, not a rotational TE.
• Week 1 was emphatic: all eight targets caught for two touchdowns and an 82.8 PFF grade, the best mark among Giants pass-catchers.
• The Rams grade as a top-10 defense vs. tight ends, but that composite is a one-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to bench a 28%-target TE.
• Risk is the 20.0 implied total and a 49% snap share; the 8.5-point spread cuts the other way, since trailing means more dropbacks and more Likely targets.

The call

• Role is the problem: a 37% snap share means he's not the every-down back, and the 11.4 projection lands him at RB29 — right on the 12-team flex line.
• New England's defense grades 10 of 32 vs the position (32 = softest), so this is a tougher-than-average box to run into, though it's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence attached.
• Game script cuts both ways: a 19.5 implied total and 4.5-point spread limit the ceiling, but trailing football feeds his 16% target share, which is where his PPR floor lives.
• Tipping point: if he's the pass-game back on third downs and the Steelers fall behind, he's a usable flex; if this stays a low-scoring grind with a split backfield, bench him for a back with a locked-in workload.