Christian McCaffrey or Josh Allen: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Allen — the projection and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.

Josh Allen projects 22.2 to McCaffrey's 20.3 and plays a 100% snap share to McCaffrey's 63%. McCaffrey's edge is the matchup, 24 of 32 to 10. The gap is comfortable.

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey

RB5SFvs DEN

Projected Points

Start
Josh Allen

Josh Allen

QB1BUFvs NE

Projected Points

Start

Christian McCaffrey’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 65.5
-114 / -110
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 4.5
-137 / +107
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 39.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
-185
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Josh Allen’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 238.5
-115 / -115
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
-175 / +137
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
+121 / -155
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 30.5
-116 / -108
Rushing Yards Props →
DEN@
SFSun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Christian McCaffrey

Start

RB1 and true feature back. Elite dual-threat volume with high-end receiving usage out of the backfield.

Start — every-week RB start at consensus RB5: DEN is the 9th-softest matchup vs RBs, 24.5 implied team total.

  • DEN ranks 24 of 32 against RBs (one of the softer matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
  • Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 63% snap share.

Latest on McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Reaches 100 Career Touchdowns; Stats and Facts from #MIAvsSF

Take a look at key stats from the San Francisco 49ers Week 2 matchup vs. the Miami Dolphins.

49ers.com · Sep 21, 2026
Brock Purdy keeps 49ers rolling with 'MVP' game vs. Dolphins

Brock Purdy authored a near-perfect game at quarterback in the 49ers' 35-13 win over the rebuilding Dolphins, ending the day with a 99.7 QBR.

ESPN · Sep 20, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Josh Allen

Start

Franchise QB and MVP-caliber dual threat. Elite arm strength with designed-run and goal-line rushing volume.

Start — every-week QB start at consensus QB1: 26.3 implied team total, 100% snap share.

  • NE ranks 10 of 32 against QBs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
  • Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
  • Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 100% snap share.

Latest on Allen

Role

Allen has carried 28 times in three games, including seven scrambles.

Greg Rousseau's sacks, Josh Allen's rushing TDs are on record pacesESPN · Oct 2, 2026
Status

Took a hit to his knee area during the fourth quarter of the Week 3 win over Chargers; head coach Joe Brady downplayed concern and said they would monitor his progress.

ESPN · Sep 28, 2026
How Josh Allen, Bills overcame five turnovers to go to 3-0

Buffalo turned the ball over three times on its first four possessions in the 24-16 win over Chargers.

ESPN · Sep 27, 2026
Who is Josh Allen's biggest hater?

Nick Suss explains why Bills head coach Joe Brady is Josh Allen's harshest critic right now.

VideoESPN · Sep 24, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricChristian McCaffreyJosh Allen
Projected points
Consensus rankRB5QB1
Opponent vs positionDEN · 24 of 323-game sampleNE · 10 of 323-game sample
Rushing Yards31 of 32—
Rushing TDs16 of 32—
Rushing Attempts23 of 32—
Receptions25 of 32—
Receiving Yards29 of 32—
Anytime TD20 of 32—
Passing Yards—6 of 32
Passing TDs—9 of 32
Passing Completions—9 of 32
Passing Attempts—13 of 32
Interceptions—15 of 32
Target share21%—
Reception share22%—
Implied total · spread24.5-2.526.3-3.0
Depth chartRB1QB1
Snap share63%100%

Recent form

Christian McCaffrey — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs ARI
Week 2vs MIA
Week 1vs LAR

Josh Allen — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs LAC
Week 2vs DET
Week 1vs HOU

Signal breakdown

  • 20.3 vs 22.2 projected PPR pointsJosh Allen +
  • Rank 5 vs 1Josh Allen +
  • Opponent DvP rank 24 vs 10 (32 = softest)Christian McCaffrey +
  • Implied 24.5 vs 26.3 team pointsJosh Allen +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 63% vs 100% snap shareJosh Allen +

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