Start Bucky Irving over Dalton Schultz — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Irving's Bigger Role in a Better Script Edges Out Schultz's Target Share

Irving's edge comes almost entirely from the numbers that matter most for a bell-cow back — a real bump in expected points behind Tampa Bay's plus-3.5 line and a 23.5 implied total that keeps him near the goal line all afternoon. Schultz still gets more total volume, with a fuller route tree and a bigger target share, but he's fighting Buffalo's defense at the position's toughest end, which caps how much of that volume actually turns into scoring plays. The matchup ratings themselves are unreliable early in the year, so this really comes down to opportunity: Irving's touches carry more equity than Schultz's targets do this week. Both are startable, but Irving's game script gives him the higher confident floor.

What flips it: A spread swing further toward Tampa Bay, or an expanded red-zone role for Schultz in Houston's offense.

AI editor

Bucky Irving

RB22TBvs CIN

10.211.312.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Dalton Schultz

TE21HOUvs BUF

4.76.58.4 Projected Points

Start

Why Bucky Irving

Start· medium

RB1 and feature back. Elusive one-cut runner with excellent contact balance and pass-game usage.

62% snaps plus an 11% target share makes Irving a PPR-safe RB2, and CIN grades 26th of 32 against the run game.

Feature-back touches plus a 23.5-point team total give him goal-line paths a route-runner like Schultz doesn't have.
His target share trails Schultz's, so his ceiling still leans on the ground game hitting rather than garbage-time catches.

The call

Irving is the clear lead back at a 62% snap share over 10 games, and the 11% target share gives him a PPR floor even if the ground game stalls.
Cincinnati checks in 26th of 32 in the DvP composite, one of the softer draws available — though that grade carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as a nudge, not the case.
A 23.5 implied team total with a 3.5-point spread points to a competitive script where Tampa Bay keeps feeding the run and Irving stays on the field in both phases.
RB22 with 12.4 projected points is squarely in 12-team starting range; the risk is touchdown variance, not role — he has no injury designation.

Why Dalton Schultz

Start

TE1 in high-volume pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover over the middle with sure hands.

Start — TE21 consensus, projects TE19 this week: BUF is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 19% target share in 2025.

Houston's 71% snap share and 19% target share make him the more heavily used pass-catcher of the two.
He's facing a defense that grades among the toughest on tight ends, which limits how often that volume converts.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Bucky Irving	Dalton Schultz
Projected points	10.211.312.4	4.76.58.4
Consensus rank	RB22	TE21
Opponent vs position	CIN · 26 of 320-game sample	BUF · 3 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	32 of 32	—
Rushing TDs	19 of 32	—
Rushing Attempts	23 of 32	—
Receptions	24 of 32	1 of 32
Receiving Yards	29 of 32	2 of 32
Anytime TD	26 of 32	5 of 32
Receiving TDs	—	6 of 32
Targets	—	1 of 32
Target share	11%(2025)	19%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	23%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	22.0+1.5
Depth chart	RB1	TE1
Snap share	62%(2025)	71%(2025)