Brandon Aubrey or Tyler Loop: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Aubrey — the consensus rank and weather edges are too wide to ignore.
Brandon Aubrey is the higher consensus play (K1 to K11) and kicks in the friendlier conditions (9 mph wind, overcast to Loop's 7 mph wind, drizzle). Loop's edge is the game script, 28.0 implied points to 22.5. The gap is narrow.
Brandon Aubrey
9.59.59.5 Projected Points
Tyler Loop
9.39.39.3 Projected Points
Why Brandon Aubrey
StartStarting K with elite leg strength. Reliable from extreme distance and on kickoffs.
Start — K1 by consensus, projects K3 this week: 1.0 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.5 pts projected vs HOU.
- Calm forecast at kickoff.
- 2.3 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- DAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.0 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has DAL at 22.5 points as 2.5-point dogs.
Latest on Aubrey
Being an NFL kicker means paying attention to even the smallest details and, as Brandon Aubrey and the Cowboys head to Brazil, that means sticking to his usual plan.
The first matchup of the 2026 season between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders is littered with headlines as the bitter rivals square off to ruin the other's week.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tyler Loop
Start· mediumStarting placekicker who handles kickoffs. Accurate inside 50 but limited range, hitting just 1-of-4 from 50-plus as a rookie with a long of 52.
K11 with a 28.0 implied total as an 8.5-point favorite; 3.1 projected XPs plus 2.1 FG tries offset the rain risk at an open roof.
- rain at kickoff — a real drag on long tries.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- BAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has BAL at 28 points as 8.5-point favorites.
The call
- Volume is there: a 28.0 implied team total and -8.5 spread point to a positive script, with 3.1 projected extra points and 1.8 made field goals on 2.1 attempts for a 9.3-point projection.
- His offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times per game (3-game sample), which feeds field-goal chances on top of the touchdown-driven PAT floor.
- He is the locked-in PK1 with no designation. His 88% accuracy (30/34 in 2025) is reliable, though a long of 52 and just one 50-plus make cap his deep-range upside.
- The main risk is rain forecast at kickoff with an open roof (forecast dated 2026-10-01), which could shave attempts or accuracy. The Player of the Week headline is unverified and does not factor into the call. At K11 he is still a startable 12-team kicker over replacement.
Latest on Loop
The second-year kicker earned the honor after drilling a game-winning 56-yard field goal against the Dallas Cowboys.
Here are the other three players who overcame adversity to help Jackson produce one of the wildest finishes in Ravens history.
Lamar Jackson, Tyler Loop and the Ravens delivered one of the most remarkable last-second victories in recent NFL history Sunday, thanks to a late fourth-quarter decision made by the Cowboys.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Brandon Aubrey | Tyler Loop |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.59.59.5 | 9.39.39.3 |
| Consensus rank | K1 | K11 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Kicking conditions | Retractable roof, calm forecast either way | rain forecast at kickoff |
| Implied total · spread | 22.5+2.5 | 28.0-8.5 |
| Field-goal % | 85.7%(2025) | 88.2%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0 | 2–1 |
Recent form
Brandon Aubrey — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs BAL | 10.010.010.0 |
| Week 2 | vs WSH | 17.017.017.0 |
| Week 1 | vs NYG | 2.02.02.0 |
Tyler Loop — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs DAL | 12.012.012.0 |
| Week 2 | vs NO | 5.05.05.0 |
| Week 1 | vs IND | 14.014.014.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.5 vs 9.3 projected PPR pointsBrandon Aubrey +
- Rank 1 vs 11Brandon Aubrey +
- 2.3 vs 2.1 projected attemptsBrandon Aubrey +
- 1.0 vs 1.3 red-zone stalls per gameTyler Loop +
- 9 mph, 79°F, overcast vs 7 mph, 62°F, drizzleBrandon Aubrey +
- Implied 22.5 vs 28.0 team pointsTyler Loop +
- No injury designationseven
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