Alvin Kamara or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Likely — the consensus rank and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.
Isaiah Likely is the higher consensus play (TE14 to RB48) and plays a 67% snap share to Kamara's 31%. No signal favors Kamara this week. The gap is wide.
Alvin Kamara
7.89.210.6 Projected Points
Isaiah Likely
7.59.611.7 Projected Points
Alvin Kamara’s market
Isaiah Likely’s market
Why Alvin Kamara
StartVeteran RB2 in complementary role. Elite receiving back with elusive short-area footwork, now sharing the backfield.
Start — RB48 consensus, projects RB27 this week: 24.0 implied team total, 9% target share.
- ATL ranks 5 of 32 against RBs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 31% snap share.
Latest on Kamara
Saints running back Travis Etienne Jr. will miss time with a hamstring injury suffered in Sunday's loss to the Raiders. New Orleans coach Kellen Moore did not specify how long Etienne will be out.
Saints running back Alvin Kamara has "no limitations," was a full participant in practice and says his knee feels good only one month after spraining his MCL in practice.
The team's all-time leader in rushing yards beat the projected recovery timeline and will play on Sunday
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Isaiah Likely
Start· mediumStarting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.
28% target share over 3 games in an offense implied for 26.3 points makes Likely a viable TE1 fringe start at TE14 despite a neutral matchup.
- ARI ranks 19 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 26.3 team points as 7.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 67% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the driver: a 28% target share is elite for a tight end and gives him a stable PPR floor, even at a 67% snap share.
- Game environment helps. A 26.3 implied team total and a -7.0 spread point to plenty of scoring chances, including red-zone looks.
- The matchup is neutral at 19 of 32, and it rests on a thin 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
- The 11.7 projection and TE14 rank put him on the TE1/TE2 border. With no injury designation, he's a start over typical replacement-level tight ends in 12-team leagues.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Alvin Kamara | Isaiah Likely |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.89.210.6 | 7.59.611.7 |
| Consensus rank | RB48 | TE14 |
| Opponent vs position | ATL · 5 of 323-game sample | ARI · 19 of 323-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 1 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 1 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 1 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 17 of 32 | 17 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 6 of 32 | 23 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 6 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 18 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 9 of 32 |
| Target share | 9% | 28% |
| Reception share | 10% | 29% |
| Implied total · spread | 24.0-2.5 | 26.3-7.0 |
| Depth chart | RB2 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 31% | 67% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 1–2 |
Recent form
Alvin Kamara — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs LV | 4.14.65.1 |
| Week 2 | vs BAL | 2.24.77.2 |
| Week 1 | vs DET | DNP |
Isaiah Likely — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs TEN | 1.32.33.3 |
| Week 2 | vs LAR | 3.35.88.3 |
| Week 1 | vs DAL | 19.823.827.8 |
Signal breakdown
- 10.6 vs 11.7 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
- Rank 48 vs 14Isaiah Likely +
- Opponent DvP rank 5 vs 19 (32 = softest)Isaiah Likely +
- Implied 24.0 vs 26.3 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
- No injury designationseven
- 31% vs 67% snap shareIsaiah Likely +
Compare different players
Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.
More Kamara comparisons
More Likely comparisons
This week’s toughest calls
- K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs PHI
Q. JudkinsQuinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs PIT
- Q. JudkinsQuinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs PITC. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs ARI
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs ARID. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJ
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJB. TutenBhayshul TutenRBJAXvs CIN
- B. TutenBhayshul TutenRBJAXvs CINB. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs GB
- B. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs GBD. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs DAL
- T. HigginsTee HigginsWRCINvs JAX
D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs PHI
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs PHIL. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs NYJ
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs NYJC. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs TB
- C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs TBP. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CIN
- P. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CINM. WilsonMichael WilsonWRARIvs NYG
- M. WilsonMichael WilsonWRARIvs NYGS. DiggsStefon DiggsWRWSHvs IND
- K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs NO
G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DEN
- G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DENS. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs CAR
- S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs CART. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs TB
- T. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs TBT. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs LV
- T. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs LVJ. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs HOU
- J. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs HOUI. LikelyIsaiah LikelyTENYGvs ARI
- D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs HOU
T. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CIN
- T. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CINB. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs DEN
- B. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs DENP. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs LV
- P. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs LVB. NixBo NixQBDENvs SF
- B. NixBo NixQBDENvs SFM. StaffordMatthew StaffordQBLARvs PHI
- M. StaffordMatthew StaffordQBLARvs PHIK. MurrayKyler MurrayQBMINvs MIA
- K. FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnKHOUvs DAL
H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs LV
- H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs LVT. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs TEN
- T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs TENC. SantosCairo SantosKCHIvs NYJ
- C. SantosCairo SantosKCHIvs NYJW. ReichardWill ReichardKMINvs MIA
- W. ReichardWill ReichardKMINvs MIAE. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs JAX
- E. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs JAXS. ShraderSpencer ShraderKINDvs WSH
- Commanders D/STCommanders D/STDSTWSHvs IND
Bills D/STBills D/STDSTBUFvs NE
- Bills D/STBills D/STDSTBUFvs NEBears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs NYJ
- Bears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs NYJPackers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs TB
- Packers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs TBGiants D/STGiants D/STDSTNYGvs ARI
- Giants D/STGiants D/STDSTNYGvs ARIBuccaneers D/STBuccaneers D/STDSTTBvs GB
- Buccaneers D/STBuccaneers D/STDSTTBvs GB49ers D/ST49ers D/STDSTSFvs DEN
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs ARIP. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CIN
- P. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CIND. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJ
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJD. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs PHI
- C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs TBG. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DEN
- G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DENT. HigginsTee HigginsWRCINvs JAX
- J. DownsJosh DownsWRINDvs WSH
D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs DAL - D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs DALM. WilsonMichael WilsonWRARIvs NYG
- J. CokerJalen CokerWRCARvs DET
K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs PHI
Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →
Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.
Add to My Team — freeOr browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.