Start Isaiah Likely over AJ Barner — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Likely's per-snap burst outweighs Barner's higher floor role

Likely gets on the field less than Barner but does more with it, and the field of TE14 vs TE25 consensus rank reflects real separation, not noise, at a position where touchdowns swing weeks. Barner's edge is that Seattle uses him on almost every snap, which normally buys volume, but that volume hasn't translated into targets at a rate that matches his floor role. Likely's mismatch profile as a seam-stretching pass-catcher gives him spike potential Barner's blocking-heavy usage doesn't offer. The real risk here is Likely's thinner track record — fewer games played means his target share could regress toward Barner's territory as sample size grows.

What flips it: A snap-share jump for Likely toward Barner's range with the target rate holding.

AI editor

AJ Barner

TE25SEAvs NE

4.05.36.6 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why AJ Barner

Toss-Up

TE1 with dual-role value. Willing blocker who emerged as a red-zone target with six TDs on 52 catches.

Toss-up — TE25 consensus, projects TE27 this week: 24.0 implied team total, 15% target share in 2025.

Snap share near 80% means Barner is on the field for nearly every snap, blocking duties included.
His six touchdowns on 52 catches this season show he can still hit paydirt even in a lower-volume role.

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

14% target share on 59% of snaps makes Likely a locked-in TE14 play; the DvP number carries a 0-game sample, so usage wins out.

Athletic seam-stretcher profile means his catches tend to go further and score more often per target.
Red-zone flex ability gives him touchdown equity that a plodding blocking TE can't match snap-for-snap.

The call

Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	AJ Barner	Isaiah Likely
Projected points	4.05.36.6	5.67.59.4
Consensus rank	TE25	TE14
Opponent vs position	NE · 19 of 320-game sample	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample
Receptions	26 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving Yards	25 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	6 of 32
Targets	24 of 32	9 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	5 of 32
Target share	15%(2025)	14%(2025)
Reception share	16%(2025)	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	24.0-3.5	23.5+1.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	77%(2025)	59%(2025)