AJ Barner or Eli Raridon: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Start Barner: his TE1 workload is the only playable path here

Barner’s 86% snap share signals a dependable role, and his red-zone emergence gives that workload a route to a touchdown. His target share is still modest, so the role supports a start more than it guarantees a strong score. Raridon is ruled out, making his softer matchup irrelevant this week. Barner remains a streamer, with limited target involvement the risk.

What flips it: A late status change clearing Raridon to play.

AI editor

AJ Barner

AJ Barner

TE25SEAvs LAC

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
Eli Raridon

Eli Raridon

TENEvs BUF

Projected Points

OUT — verdict voidSit· high

AJ Barner’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+200
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Eli Raridon’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+900
LAC@
SEASun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
NE@
BUFSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why AJ Barner

Toss-Up· low

TE1 with dual-role value. Willing blocker who emerged as a red-zone target with six TDs on 52 catches.

86% snap share and a 24.3 implied total support the start-lean, but a TE25 rank and 8.1-point projection make him a streamer, not a lock.

  • His dual-role TE1 job keeps him involved beyond passing downs and gives him red-zone opportunity.
  • A modest target share leaves his weekly floor vulnerable if the touchdown chance doesn’t come.

The call

  • Role is the selling point. An 86% snap share over 3 games means he's on the field nearly every down, and a 13% target share gives him a steady if unspectacular floor.
  • Game environment is solid. A 24.3 implied team total with the offense favored by 3.0 points neutralizes blowout risk and leaves room for red-zone looks.
  • The matchup doesn't move the needle. LAC ranks 15 of 32 in DvP vs TEs, which is neutral, and it comes from a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so it barely counts.
  • The TE25 consensus rank is the real concern. In a 12-team league that's streamer territory. Start him over another TE20+ option given the snap share, but bench him for anyone inside the top 15.

Why Eli Raridon

Sit· high

Rookie TE2 / developmental piece. Big-framed in-line body with limited prior sample.

Ruled Out this week, and even when active he's a 37% snap, 4% target share TE projected for 2.2 PPR points.

  • Buffalo is the softer TE matchup on the sheet, but Raridon can’t capitalize while ruled out.
  • His big in-line frame offers developmental appeal, not a usable role this week.

The call

  • Availability is listed as Out, which settles it. He can't score from the bench, so he can't be in a lineup.
  • The role is marginal anyway: a 37% snap share and 4% target share across 2 games make him a non-factor in PPR formats.
  • The matchup doesn't help. BUF ranks 11 of 32 vs TEs, a tougher-than-average draw, though that's on a thin 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence.
  • The unverified patriots.com headline about him making the trip is dated 2026-09-26 and concerns a Jaguars game. It doesn't override this week's Out designation. This confirms the model's sit-lean.

Latest on Raridon

Roster Analysis: TE Eli Raridon and S Craig Woodson make the trip, Patriots elevate two players for Sunday's Game vs. the Jaguars

Raridon (thigh) and Woodson (shoulder) are both questionable for Week 3 in Jacksonville.

patriots.com · Sep 26, 2026
Patriots get positive sign from rookie TE Eli Raridon

Mike Reiss breaks down Eli Raridon's return to practice as the Patriots monitor his status ahead of Sunday's matchup with Jacksonville.

VideoESPN · Sep 23, 2026
What to expect from Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. the Steelers

New England wants Maye to be patient but aggressive. Can he have success against the daunting Pittsburgh defense?

ESPN · Sep 20, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricAJ BarnerEli Raridon
Projected points
Consensus rankTE25—
Opponent vs positionLAC · 15 of 323-game sampleBUF · 11 of 323-game sample
Receptions17 of 3213 of 32
Receiving Yards20 of 329 of 32
Receiving TDs10 of 3210 of 32
Targets18 of 3216 of 32
Anytime TD9 of 329 of 32
Target share13%4%
Reception share12%6%
Implied total · spread24.3-3.023.3+3.0
Depth chartTE1TE2
Snap share86%37%
Injury designation—Out
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up—

Recent form

AJ Barner — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs WSH
Week 2vs ARI
Week 1vs NE

Eli Raridon — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs JAX
Week 2vs PIT
Week 1vs SEA

Signal breakdown

  • 8.1 vs 2.2 projected PPR pointsAJ Barner +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 15 vs 11 (32 = softest)AJ Barner +
  • Implied 24.3 vs 23.3 team pointsAJ Barner +
  • A ruled-out player cannot be a startAJ Barner +
  • 86% vs 37% snap shareAJ Barner +

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