Aaron Jones Sr. or Luther Burden III: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Burden: his emerging role outweighs Jones' fragile workload
Start Luther Burden III: his outside-starter role is already translating into earned and designed work, while Chicago's stronger scoring environment gives the passing game more room to produce. His Week 1 usage outpaced Rome Odunze, confirming the role is more than preseason projection (CBS Sports 2026-09-14). Jones has the better raw projection and veteran RB1 pedigree, but a shared backfield and underdog script make his volume less trustworthy. Burden's risk is target volatility as a WR2, but that is the narrower concern than Jones' uncertain playing time.
What flips it: A clear return of Odunze to Chicago's featured target role.
Sources: CBS Sports · Sep 14, 2026
AI editor
In standard scoring this is a coin flip.
Aaron Jones Sr.
12.213.314.4 Projected Points
Luther Burden III
8.110.312.4 Projected Points
Aaron Jones Sr.’s market
Luther Burden III’s market
Why Aaron Jones Sr.
Toss-Up· mediumRB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.
RB35 with just a 46% snap share and 4% target share — 11.6 projected points is flex-only, and a 3.5-point underdog script caps the volume.
- Jones' receiving chops can preserve PPR value if Minnesota falls behind.
- Shared backfield work makes his touchdown path thinner than the RB1 label suggests.
The call
- Timeshare role is the problem: 46% snap share and a 4% target share mean he needs efficiency or goal-line work to clear his 11.6 projection, not volume.
- Matchup is neutral at best — Chicago ranks 18 of 32 in the DvP composite off a one-game sample with zero confidence, so there's no edge to lean on either way.
- Vegas has the offense at a 21.0 implied total as a 3.5-point underdog; trailing football funnels work to the pass game, and he isn't the receiving back here.
- Tip it to start if he's confirmed as the goal-line/two-minute back or the snap share climbs toward 60%; otherwise he's a bench-with-upside flex in 12-team PPR.
Why Luther Burden III
Start· mediumWR2 and outside starter opposite Rome Odunze. Explosive yards-after-catch threat with manufactured-touch usage.
WR27 with a 19% target share and the 29th-ranked DvP matchup — Burden's 5-of-5, 63-yard Week 1 says the role is real.
- Out-targeting Odunze supports Burden's claim to meaningful passing-game priority.
- Manufactured touches give him multiple paths to production beyond downfield catches.
The call
- Minnesota grades 29 of 32 in defense-vs-WR composite, though it's a one-game sample — the softness is a tiebreaker, not the whole case.
- Role is the real driver: 73% snap share and a 19% target share as the WR-2, and he out-targeted Rome Odunze in Week 1 (5 catches on 5 targets, 63 yards).
- Chicago is favored by 3.5 with a 24.5 implied total — enough scoring environment to support a full route tree without a run-heavy blowout script.
- Risk is the thin body of work: one game of usage data, and Odunze can reclaim volume any week, which caps this at a flex-level start rather than a lock.
Latest on Burden
Burden caught 5 of 5 targets for 63 yards in the Week 1 win, out-targeting Rome Odunze as the Bears' passing game leaned on him and Kalif Raymond over Odunze.
CBS Sports · Sep 14, 2026Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Aaron Jones Sr. | Luther Burden III |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 12.213.314.4 | 8.110.312.4 |
| Consensus rank | RB35 | WR27 |
| Opponent vs position | CHI · 18 of 321-game sample | MIN · 29 of 321-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 16 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 15 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 11 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 12 of 32 | 30 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 31 of 32 | 31 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 22 of 32 | 25 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 25 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 32 of 32 |
| Target share | 4% | 19% |
| Reception share | 0% | 24% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.0+3.5 | 24.5-3.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | WR2 |
| Snap share | 46% | 73% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+2 toss-ups | — |
Recent form
Aaron Jones Sr. — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs GB | 10.010.010.0 |
Luther Burden III — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 4.57.09.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 14.4 vs 12.4 projected PPR pointsAaron Jones Sr. +
- Rank 35 vs 27Luther Burden III +
- Opponent DvP rank 18 vs 29 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 21.0 vs 24.5 team pointsLuther Burden III +
- No injury designationseven
- 46% vs 73% snap shareLuther Burden III +
Compare different players
Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.
More Jones comparisons
More Burden comparisons
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MINJ. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs BUF
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MINR. OdunzeRome OdunzeWRCHIvs MIN
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MINC. TateCarnell TateWRTENvs PHI
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MINM. Harrison Jr.Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARIvs SEA
This week’s toughest calls
- K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs NYG
C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs LAR
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs LARD. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs MIN
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs MINB. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CLE
- B. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CLED. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs CIN
- D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs CINJ. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs ARI
- J. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs ARIR. StevensonRhamondre StevensonRBNEvs PIT
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs NYG
D. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs DET
- D. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs DETJ. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs BUF
- J. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs BUFL. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MIN
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MINM. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIA
- M. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIAC. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs NYJ
- C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs NYJM. GoldenMatthew GoldenWRGBvs NYJ
- K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs CAR
G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs MIA
- G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs MIAS. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs BUF
- S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs BUFT. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs NYJ
- T. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs NYJT. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs IND
- T. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs INDD. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs TEN
- D. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs TENJ. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs WSH
- D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs WSH
J. DartJaxson DartQBNYGvs LAR
- J. DartJaxson DartQBNYGvs LARJ. HerbertJustin HerbertQBLACvs LV
- J. HerbertJustin HerbertQBLACvs LVC. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs MIN
- C. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs MINB. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs MIA
- B. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs MIAP. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs IND
- P. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs INDB. NixBo NixQBDENvs JAX
- B. AubreyBrandon AubreyKDALvs WSH
K. FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnKHOUvs CIN
- K. FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnKHOUvs CINH. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs IND
- H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs INDT. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs NO
- T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs NOC. SantosCairo SantosKCHIvs MIN
- C. SantosCairo SantosKCHIvs MINC. McLaughlinChase McLaughlinKTBvs CLE
- C. McLaughlinChase McLaughlinKTBvs CLEN. FolkNick FolkKATLvs CAR
- Buccaneers D/STBuccaneers D/STDSTTBvs CLE
Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs LV
- Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs LVBears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs MIN
- Bears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs MIN49ers D/ST49ers D/STDSTSFvs MIA
- 49ers D/ST49ers D/STDSTSFvs MIABroncos D/STBroncos D/STDSTDENvs JAX
- Broncos D/STBroncos D/STDSTDENvs JAXPackers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs NYJ
- Packers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs NYJFalcons D/STFalcons D/STDSTATLvs CAR
- D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs CIND. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs NYG
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs NYGD. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs MIN
- J. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs ARIM. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIA
- M. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIAR. StevensonRhamondre StevensonRBNEvs PIT
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs LARC. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs NYJ
- D. Samuel Sr.Deebo Samuel Sr.WRSFvs MIA
J. DobbinsJ.K. DobbinsRBDENvs JAX
- J. DobbinsJ.K. DobbinsRBDENvs JAXI. LikelyIsaiah LikelyTENYGvs LAR
- I. LikelyIsaiah LikelyTENYGvs LARJ. WarrenJaylen WarrenRBPITvs NE
Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →
Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.
Add to My Team — freeOr browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.