Aaron Jones Sr. or Kyren Williams: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Williams — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Kyren Williams is the higher consensus play (RB16 to RB35) and plays in the better game script (28.5 implied team points to 21.0). Jones's edge is the projection, 14.4 to 14.2. The gap is wide.
Aaron Jones Sr.
12.213.314.4 Projected Points
Kyren Williams
12.013.114.2 Projected Points
Aaron Jones Sr.’s market
Kyren Williams’s market
Why Aaron Jones Sr.
Toss-Up· mediumRB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.
RB35 with just a 46% snap share and 4% target share — 11.6 projected points is flex-only, and a 3.5-point underdog script caps the volume.
- CHI ranks 18 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 1-game sample).
- Vegas implies 21.0 team points as 3.5-point underdogs.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 46% snap share.
The call
- Timeshare role is the problem: 46% snap share and a 4% target share mean he needs efficiency or goal-line work to clear his 11.6 projection, not volume.
- Matchup is neutral at best — Chicago ranks 18 of 32 in the DvP composite off a one-game sample with zero confidence, so there's no edge to lean on either way.
- Vegas has the offense at a 21.0 implied total as a 3.5-point underdog; trailing football funnels work to the pass game, and he isn't the receiving back here.
- Tip it to start if he's confirmed as the goal-line/two-minute back or the snap share climbs toward 60%; otherwise he's a bench-with-upside flex in 12-team PPR.
Why Kyren Williams
Start· mediumRB1 and feature back. High-volume workhorse with vision, contact balance, and consistent goal-line and passing-game usage.
28.5 implied total and an 8.5-point spread put Williams in a lead-back closing script, and he's still the only Rams back with a pass-game role.
- NYG ranks 15 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 1-game sample).
- Vegas implies 28.5 team points as 8.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 64% snap share.
The call
- Vegas is the biggest driver: a 28.5 implied team total as an 8.5-point favorite is exactly the script that funnels red-zone carries and fourth-quarter clock work to the lead back.
- Role is intact where it matters — 64% snap share, an 11% target share, and per ESPN (9/10) he remained the only one of the two backs with a pass-game role while scoring the Rams' only touchdown.
- The Corum split is the real risk: Williams was one carry short of an even rushing-work split in Week 1, which caps the ceiling and explains the RB16 consensus rank rather than a top-10 call.
- Matchup is neutral — the Giants grade 15 of 32 versus the position on a 1-game sample with zero confidence, so it neither helps nor hurts the case.
Latest on Williams
Williams was one carry short of an even rushing-work split with Corum in Week 1, though he remained the only back of the two with a pass-game role and scored the Rams' only touchdown.
ESPN · Sep 10, 2026LA Rams running back Kyren Williams rushes in from five yards to give the Rams the lead with the first touchdown in Australia.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Aaron Jones Sr. | Kyren Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 12.213.314.4 | 12.013.114.2 |
| Consensus rank | RB35 | RB16 |
| Opponent vs position | CHI · 18 of 321-game sample | NYG · 15 of 321-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 16 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Rushing TDs | 15 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Rushing Attempts | 11 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receptions | 12 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 31 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 22 of 32 | 22 of 32 |
| Target share | 4% | 11% |
| Reception share | 0% | 18% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.0+3.5 | 28.5-8.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | RB1 |
| Snap share | 46% | 64% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+2 toss-ups | 1–0 |
Recent form
Aaron Jones Sr. — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs GB | 10.010.010.0 |
Kyren Williams — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs SF | 12.514.015.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 14.4 vs 14.2 projected PPR pointsAaron Jones Sr. +
- Rank 35 vs 16Kyren Williams +
- Opponent DvP rank 18 vs 15 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 21.0 vs 28.5 team pointsKyren Williams +
- No injury designationseven
- 46% vs 64% snap shareKyren Williams +
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