Aaron Jones Sr. or DeVonta Smith: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Smith's locked-in routes beat Jones' committee upside

DeVonta Smith is the better start because his every-down role and WR1 target profile give his projection a sturdier PPR floor. Aaron Jones has the slightly higher projection and a favorable veteran-lead-back profile, but his shared workload makes that edge fragile. Smith's tougher matchup is real, yet Yahoo Sports (Eagles Wire) 2026-09-14 confirms the role that makes his volume more bankable; Jones' risk is a touchdown-dependent week.

What flips it: A verified move toward a lead-back workload for Jones.

Sources: Yahoo Sports (Eagles Wire) · Sep 14, 2026

AI editor

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB35MINvs CHI

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith

WR16PHIvs TEN

Projected Points

Start

Aaron Jones Sr.’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 61.5
-112 / -112
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 2.5
-119 / -107
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 14.5
-120 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
-135
Anytime Touchdown Props →

DeVonta Smith’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-132 / +104
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 60.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+200
Anytime Touchdown Props →
MIN@
CHISun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
PHI@
TENSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Aaron Jones Sr.

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.

14.4 projection says flex, but a 46% snap share and 4% target share in a committee cap the PPR floor — he's a volume-dependent RB3.

  • Jones has goal-line and receiving ability that can turn limited committee work into a strong fantasy result.
  • His projected scoring edge reflects usable upside if Minnesota leans on him near the stripe.

The call

  • The projection (14.4) and the consensus rank (RB35) disagree, and the usage data explains why: 46% snaps means Jones is splitting the backfield, not carrying it.
  • A 4% target share is the real problem in PPR — there's no receiving floor to fall back on if the early-down work goes for 45 yards.
  • Matchup is neutral at 18 of 32 vs RBs, and that composite is a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle either way.
  • A 21.0 implied team total with a 3.5-point spread points to a tight, moderate-scoring game — fine for touches, not a script that guarantees goal-line volume. Start him if your alternative is a clear bench body; sit him for any RB with a pass-game role.

Why DeVonta Smith

Start

WR1-caliber outside receiver. Elite route technician with reliable hands and high target volume.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: TEN is the 9th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 27% target share.

  • Smith's clear WR1 role makes his target volume more resilient than Jones' rushing workload.
  • The Eagles' higher team scoring expectation supports Smith even against a tougher receiver matchup.

Latest on Smith

Role

Smith played 52 of 55 offensive snaps (95%) in the Week 1 win, confirming his role as the clear WR1 in the new offense.

Yahoo Sports (Eagles Wire) · Sep 14, 2026

Head-to-head stats

MetricAaron Jones Sr.DeVonta Smith
Projected points
Consensus rankRB35WR16
Opponent vs positionCHI · 18 of 321-game sampleTEN · 9 of 321-game sample
Rushing Yards16 of 32—
Rushing TDs15 of 32—
Rushing Attempts11 of 32—
Receptions12 of 3215 of 32
Receiving Yards31 of 3224 of 32
Anytime TD22 of 321 of 32
Receiving TDs—1 of 32
Targets—4 of 32
Target share4%27%
Reception share0%21%
Implied total · spread21.0+3.523.5-4.5
Depth chartRB1WR1
Snap share46%95%
Start/Sit record0–0+2 toss-ups—

Recent form

Aaron Jones Sr. — last 1 week

Week 1vs GB

DeVonta Smith — last 1 week

Week 1vs WSH

Signal breakdown

  • 14.4 vs 14.0 projected PPR pointsAaron Jones Sr. +
  • Rank 35 vs 16DeVonta Smith +
  • Opponent DvP rank 18 vs 9 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 21.0 vs 23.5 team pointsDeVonta Smith +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 46% vs 95% snap shareDeVonta Smith +

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