Aaron Jones Sr. or Devaughn Vele: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Role is secure. He's played 64% of snaps through 2 games and just logged 23 carries, his most in a game since 2022. ESPN reports he was cleared to start after a full Friday practice, so the missed Wednesday session looks like workload management.
• The matchup is neutral. TB ranks 14 of 32 in the DvP composite, but that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle either way.
• Game script is neutral too. A 21.5 implied total and a 1.5 spread point to a close game where he should keep his early-down work.
• The PPR ceiling is capped by a 2% target share, so his value rides almost entirely on carries and touchdowns. At RB35 he's a flex play, not a locked-in RB2. A back with a clear receiving role would tip this to a sit.

The call

• Role is not in question: 94% snap share through two games with a 19% target share means he's on the field for everything as the WR-2, and that volume floor is what flex plays live on in PPR.
• The 11.5-point projection lands him in solid FLEX/WR3 territory — clearly above a typical replacement option in a 12-team league.
• The matchup grades tough (7 of 32 vs the position), but that composite comes off a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it's not reliable enough to bench a full-time receiver over.
• Game script is neutral-to-good: 23.0 implied team total as a 3.5-point favorite keeps the offense on schedule without forcing a pass-heavy blowout chase — the main risk is a run-out-the-clock win that caps his targets.