Start Tucker Kraft over Terrance Ferguson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Kraft's every-down role outweighs Ferguson's better game environment

Tucker Kraft wins because his TE1 role gives him a far stronger weekly foundation than Terrance Ferguson's rotational usage. Ferguson gets the better scoring environment and a softer-looking matchup, but those advantages are less valuable when his route and target access remain limited. Kraft's return from injury is the clear risk, while Ferguson's stated desire to contribute in every phase has not yet translated into dependable fantasy volume (therams.com 2026-09-07).

What flips it: Kraft is ruled out Sunday.

Sources: therams.com · Sep 7, 2026

AI editor

Terrance Ferguson

TE22LARvs SF

5.36.78.1 Projected Points

Sit

Tucker Kraft

TE13GBvs MIN

5.47.29.0 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Terrance Ferguson

Sit

Rotational TE in pass-catching role. Movement-Y receiver with developing target share.

Sit — TE22 by consensus and projection: SF is the 8th-softest matchup vs TEs, 25.8 implied team total.

Ferguson benefits from the stronger implied scoring environment and the more favorable matchup profile.
His rotational role, not the game setup, is the obstacle; a target surge would change the outlook.

Latest on Ferguson

Terrance Ferguson wants to expand want he can do in Year 2: 'I just want to be involved in all aspects of the game'

Feeling more comfortable in the Rams' offense, second-year tight end Terrance Ferguson hoping to show more of what he's capable of in 2026.

therams.com · Sep 6, 2026

Injury Updates: Aaron Donald not practicing Monday "part of the plan all along," Myles Garrett "making really good progress," and updates on Terrance Ferguson, Grant Stuard, Keagen Trost and Justin Dedich

Rams head coach Sean McVay addressed why Aaron Donald wasn't practicing Monday, as well as injury updates on Myles Garrett, Terrance Ferguson, Grant Stuard, Keagen Trost and Justin Dedich.

therams.com · Aug 31, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tucker Kraft

Start· medium

TE1 and primary seam threat. Physical yards-after-catch producer and capable in-line blocker; returning from injury.

86% snaps and a 20% target share make Kraft a locked-in TE1 usage bet; TE13 at 9.1 clears the streamer bar if he's active Sunday.

Kraft's primary-seam role and heavy participation create the dependable involvement Ferguson lacks.
The matchup is less inviting, but his usage can overcome it if he is active and physically ready.

The call

A 20% target share over eight games is elite for the position — Kraft is a genuine focal point in this passing game, not a matchup-dependent streamer, and 86% snaps confirm the every-down role.
The DvP composite lists Minnesota 7 of 32 against tight ends, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — that number shouldn't override established volume.
Game script cooperates: a 1.5-point spread with a 23.0 implied total means a competitive, two-way script that keeps Green Bay throwing rather than salting a lead away.
The only real risk is the questionable tag. If he's downgraded or ruled out pregame, pivot; short of that, TE13 with this usage beats the replacement-level tight end on your bench.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Terrance Ferguson	Tucker Kraft
Projected points	5.36.78.1	5.47.29.0
Consensus rank	TE22	TE13
Opponent vs position	SF · 25 of 320-game sample	MIN · 7 of 320-game sample
Receptions	22 of 32	6 of 32
Receiving Yards	21 of 32	5 of 32
Receiving TDs	26 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	30 of 32	7 of 32
Anytime TD	26 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	7%(2025)	20%(2025)
Reception share	4%(2025)	21%(2025)
Implied total · spread	25.8-3.0	23.0-1.5
Depth chart	TE3	TE1
Snap share	44%(2025)	86%(2025)
Injury designation	Questionable	Questionable