Rhamondre Stevenson or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Stevenson’s PPR floor meets Ferguson’s seam-shot ceiling
Stevenson’s receiving involvement gives him a sturdier PPR path, but Henderson’s return has reopened the backfield split; Patriots.com 2026-09-20 documented how much his lead role depended on Henderson being out. Ferguson’s higher team scoring environment and seam-threat profile offer more spike-week potential, though his TE2 role and Denver’s low-confidence early matchup signal temper it. The 1.4-point projection gap is not enough to separate those paths, and Ferguson’s ankle report is the clearer swing risk (Yahoo Sports 2026-09-23).
What flips it: A Ferguson downgrade after the ankle report.
Sources: Patriots.com · Sep 20, 2026 · Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026
AI editor
Rhamondre Stevenson
9.210.612.0 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
6.78.610.6 Projected Points
Rhamondre Stevenson’s market
Terrance Ferguson’s market
Why Rhamondre Stevenson
Toss-Up· lowRB1 and lead back. Physical between-the-tackles runner with reliable receiving-game involvement.
RB26 at 12.0 projected with a 61% snap share, but Henderson's Week 2 return re-split the backfield; neutral JAX matchup (13th) doesn't tip it.
- Stevenson can stay involved through the air even when Henderson cuts into his early-down work.
- His Week 1 lead-back workload came with Henderson out, so the current split limits how much to bank on that role.
The call
- Role is the swing factor: Stevenson played 84.5% of snaps as the lead back with Henderson out in Week 1, then Henderson's return split the workload again, so the 61% two-game snap share overstates his current share.
- The 15% target share keeps a PPR floor, and the 12.0 projection at RB26 sits right on the flex/RB2 borderline in 12-team leagues.
- The matchup is neutral: JAX ranks 13 of 32 in the DvP composite, and on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence it offers no real edge either way.
- Game script is roughly even with a 22.0 implied total and a 1.5 spread, so no script-driven volume boost. Start him over a flex option projected under about 11 points; bench him for a clear lead back.
Latest on Stevenson
With Henderson out in Week 1, Stevenson played 60 of 71 offensive snaps (84.5%), serving as the clear lead back before Henderson's Week 2 return split the backfield workload again.
Patriots.com · Sep 20, 2026Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Terrance Ferguson
Toss-Up· lowSecond-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.
18% target share and a 24.3 implied total support the start-lean, but TE22 rank, a stingy DEN matchup (8 of 32) and an ankle note cap the upside.
- Ferguson’s seam-threat ability offers a path to a spike week beyond his TE2 standing.
- The ankle note is a real availability concern: Yahoo reported a surprise limited practice designation.
The call
- Usage is the case for him: an 18% target share on a 55% snap share is starter-caliber volume for a tight end, and the 10.6 PPR projection reflects that.
- Game environment helps. The Rams are 3-point favorites with a 24.3 implied total, so scoring chances should be there.
- Matchup cuts the other way. DEN ranks 8 of 32 vs TEs (32 = softest), though that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so weight it lightly.
- Risk: Yahoo (2026-09-23) reported he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle injury. He carries no designation now, but at TE22 he sits outside the 12-team starter tier. Start him over a streamer outside the top 15; sit him for anyone ranked there or higher.
Latest on Ferguson
Terrance Ferguson was listed as a limited participant with an ankle injury and was a surprise addition to Wednesday's injury report.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Rams-Broncos on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Rhamondre Stevenson | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.210.612.0 | 6.78.610.6 |
| Consensus rank | RB26 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | JAX · 13 of 322-game sample | DEN · 8 of 322-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 4 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 10 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 4 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 24 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 26 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 9 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 7 of 32 |
| Target share | 15% | 18% |
| Reception share | 16% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.0+1.5 | 24.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 61% | 55% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–1+1 toss-up | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Rhamondre Stevenson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs PIT | 2.63.13.6 |
| Week 1 | vs SEA | 9.512.014.5 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 12.0 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsRhamondre Stevenson +
- Rank 26 vs 22Terrance Ferguson +
- Opponent DvP rank 13 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 22.0 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 61% vs 55% snap shareRhamondre Stevenson +
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