Michael Mayer or T.J. Hockenson: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Michael Mayer and T.J. Hockenson grade out even this week. Mayer's best edge is the consensus rank (TE12 to TE15), Hockenson's best edge is snap share (78% to 62%) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Michael Mayer

TE12LVvs MIA

5.47.39.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

T.J. Hockenson

TE15MINvs GB

4.76.99.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Michael Mayer

Toss-Up

TE2 in complementary role. Physical in-line blocker with reliable short-to-intermediate hands behind the starter.

Toss-up — TE12 by consensus and projection: 13% target share in 2025, 9.3 PPR projected vs MIA.

Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 62% snap share in 2025.

Why T.J. Hockenson

Toss-Up· medium

TE1 and primary middle-of-field target. Route-savvy seam threat with high-volume usage when healthy.

Locked-in receiving role (78% snaps, 16% target share) but TE16 consensus and 9.2 projected points put him right at the 12-team replacement line.

Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 78% snap share in 2025.

The call

Role is not the question: he's the clear top receiving tight end in a 1a/1b split with blocker Josh Oliver, at a 78% snap share and a 16% target share over 15 games — that's genuine TE1 usage.
The problem is the ceiling this week. A 9.2-point projection and TE16 consensus rank sit right on top of the streaming pool, so he isn't a clear upgrade over a typical replacement.
Matchup gives no edge either way: Green Bay grades 12 of 32 vs the position, and that composite comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it's noise.
Game script is neutral-to-fine — 21.5 implied total in a 1.5-point game means no blowout risk in either direction. If you're choosing between him and an unproven streamer, the target share tips it to start; if your bench TE has a plus matchup, sit him.

Latest on Hockenson

Role

T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver are being deployed as 1a/1b tight ends, with Hockenson serving as the top receiving tight end while Oliver works as the primary blocking tight end.

Yahoo Sports · Aug 30, 2026

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Michael Mayer	T.J. Hockenson
Projected points	5.47.39.3	4.76.99.2
Consensus rank	TE12	TE15
Opponent vs position	MIAno ranking yet	GBno ranking yet
Target share	13%(2025)	16%(2025)
Reception share	14%(2025)	19%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.3-3.0	21.5+1.5
Depth chart	TE2	TE1
Snap share	62%(2025)	78%(2025)
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up