Juwan Johnson or Michael Mayer: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Johnson’s role meets Mayer’s scoring edge

Johnson brings the cleaner volume bet: as New Orleans’ TE1 and a red-zone/intermediate mismatch, his route access can survive a negative script. Mayer has the slightly friendlier scoring environment, but his complementary TE2 role makes that edge fragile if Las Vegas does not need to chase points. The call stays even because Johnson’s usage advantage and Mayer’s game-script edge offset each other; Johnson’s risk is a low Saints total, while Mayer’s is disappearing behind the starter.

What flips it: A confirmed expansion of Mayer’s route role, or a sharp drop in New Orleans’ expected scoring.

AI editor

Juwan Johnson

TE12NOvs DET

4.86.88.8 Projected Points

Start· medium

Michael Mayer

TE12LVvs MIA

5.47.39.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Juwan Johnson

Start· medium

TE1 and high-volume pass-catcher. Big-bodied converted receiver who is a red-zone and intermediate mismatch.

TE13 with an 18% target share and 75% snaps — a locked-in role plus a 7-point underdog script that puts the ball in the air makes him a fine streamer-plus play.

Johnson’s TE1 role gives him the sturdier route floor and legitimate red-zone access.
His mismatch profile is especially useful if New Orleans falls behind and must throw.

The call

Role is the case: 75% snap share and an 18% target share over a 17-game sample means he's a genuine primary passing-game piece, not a game-plan-dependent TE.
New Orleans is a 7-point underdog with a 20.8 implied total — trailing scripts inflate short-to-intermediate volume, and Johnson is the guy who absorbs it.
Matchup is neutral at best (19 of 32 DvP, though it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence), so this is a volume start rather than a matchup start.
At TE13 with 8.8 projected points and no injury designation, he clears a typical waiver-wire replacement in a 12-team PPR league; the risk is a low-scoring, low-ceiling game if the Saints' offense stalls.

Latest on Johnson

NFL fantasy outlook for Saints in 2026? Etienne, Johnson, rookie WRs

With Alvin Kamara sidelined, fantasy managers are left to wonder who will pick up the carries for New Orleans.

ESPN · Sep 7, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Michael Mayer

Toss-Up

TE2 in complementary role. Physical in-line blocker with reliable short-to-intermediate hands behind the starter.

Toss-up — TE12 by consensus and projection: 13% target share in 2025, 9.3 PPR projected vs MIA.

Mayer benefits from the better scoring environment if Las Vegas sustains drives.
His reliable short-area receiving can beat expectations if his limited role expands near the goal line.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Juwan Johnson	Michael Mayer
Projected points	4.86.88.8	5.47.39.3
Consensus rank	TE12	TE12
Opponent vs position	DETno ranking yet	MIAno ranking yet
Target share	18%(2025)	13%(2025)
Reception share	19%(2025)	14%(2025)
Implied total · spread	20.8+7.0	22.3-3.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE2
Snap share	75%(2025)	62%(2025)
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up