Isaiah Likely or Michael Mayer: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Likely's big-slot path meets Mayer's steadier role in an even TE call

Likely's planned move into a big-slot receiver role gives him the more intriguing route to extra targets, especially if New York is short on wideout help (Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) 2026-09-02). Mayer counters with slightly steadier playing time and a safer complementary role, but his TE2 status limits the ceiling. Likely has the better offensive environment and consensus edge, while Dallas remains a difficult matchup. The small projection gap is noise at tight end, leaving role upside versus snap stability genuinely level.

What flips it: A confirmed full-time big-slot role for Likely.

Sources: Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

TE11NYGvs DAL

5.77.69.5 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Michael Mayer

TE12LVvs MIA

5.47.39.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Isaiah Likely

Toss-Up· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE12 at 9.4 projected is exactly replacement level — a 14% target share and tough DAL matchup (10 of 32) cap the ceiling, but big-slot usage is the tiebreaker.

Big-slot usage could create receiver-like routes and targets if the Giants' thin wideout group persists.
His red-zone mismatch ability gives the higher team total more practical scoring value.

The call

Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, literally the last starting tight end in a 12-team league — no margin over a typical waiver TE.
Role is real but not dominant: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means he needs volume or a red-zone look to clear his projection.
Matchup leans the wrong way — Dallas grades 10 of 32 on the DvP composite (32 = softest), though the 0-game sample means low confidence in that read.
Reported plan to use him as a 'big slot receiver' with only five wide receivers available is the tipping point: if that materializes and Nabers is limited, his target share jumps and he becomes a start; if he's back to a standard TE snap count, sit him.

Latest on Likely

Scheme

With only five wide receivers on the projected depth chart, the Giants plan to deploy tight end Isaiah Likely as a 'big slot receiver' to offset a possible shortage if Malik Nabers isn't fully ready for Week 1.

Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

Why Michael Mayer

Toss-Up

TE2 in complementary role. Physical in-line blocker with reliable short-to-intermediate hands behind the starter.

Toss-up — TE12 by consensus and projection: 13% target share in 2025, 9.3 PPR projected vs MIA.

A steadier snap base supports Mayer's floor even without a featured receiving role.
His in-line skill can keep him involved when Las Vegas leans on its complementary packages.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Isaiah Likely	Michael Mayer
Projected points	5.77.69.5	5.47.39.3
Consensus rank	TE11	TE12
Opponent vs position	DALno ranking yet	MIAno ranking yet
Target share	14%(2025)	13%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	14%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+1.5	22.3-3.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE2
Snap share	59%(2025)	62%(2025)
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up