Mark Andrews or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Andrews — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.
Mark Andrews is the higher consensus play (TE15 to TE22) and plays in the better game script (27.0 implied team points to 24.3). Ferguson's edge is the projection, 10.6 to 10.2. The gap is comfortable.
Mark Andrews
TE15BALvs DAL
6.48.310.2 Projected Points
Start· medium
Terrance Ferguson
TE22LARvs DEN
6.78.610.6 Projected Points
Toss-Up· low
Mark Andrews’s market
Terrance Ferguson’s market
Why Mark Andrews
Start· mediumTE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.
25% target share and 72% snaps in a 27.0-point implied offense make Andrews a viable TE1 fringe start at TE15 despite a neutral DAL matchup.
- DAL ranks 21 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 72% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the driver: a 25% target share over 2 games is elite for a tight end, and his 72% snap share locks him into the base role.
- Game environment helps. A 27.0 implied team total with a -2.5 spread points to a competitive, scoring-friendly script with red-zone chances.
- The matchup is neutral at best. DAL ranks 21 of 32 in the DvP composite, but that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
- Risk: the 10.2 projection and TE15 rank put him in streamer territory, and the 2-game usage sample could regress. He still clears a typical replacement TE, and no injury designation removes availability concerns.
Why Terrance Ferguson
Toss-Up· lowSecond-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.
18% target share and a 24.3 implied total support the start-lean, but TE22 rank, a stingy DEN matchup (8 of 32) and an ankle note cap the upside.
- DEN ranks 8 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the case for him: an 18% target share on a 55% snap share is starter-caliber volume for a tight end, and the 10.6 PPR projection reflects that.
- Game environment helps. The Rams are 3-point favorites with a 24.3 implied total, so scoring chances should be there.
- Matchup cuts the other way. DEN ranks 8 of 32 vs TEs (32 = softest), though that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so weight it lightly.
- Risk: Yahoo (2026-09-23) reported he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle injury. He carries no designation now, but at TE22 he sits outside the 12-team starter tier. Start him over a streamer outside the top 15; sit him for anyone ranked there or higher.
Latest on Ferguson
Status
Terrance Ferguson was listed as a limited participant with an ankle injury and was a surprise addition to Wednesday's injury report.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Rams-Broncos on "Sunday Night Football."
ESPN · Sep 27, 2026
VideoESPN · Sep 22, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Mark Andrews | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.48.310.2 | 6.78.610.6 |
| Consensus rank | TE15 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | DAL · 21 of 322-game sample | DEN · 8 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 21 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 19 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 26 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 11 of 32 | 7 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 26 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 25% | 18% |
| Reception share | 26% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 27.0-2.5 | 24.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 72% | 55% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–1 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Mark Andrews — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NO | 4.97.910.9 |
| Week 1 | vs IND | 4.96.98.9 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 10.2 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- Rank 15 vs 22Mark Andrews +
- Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 27.0 vs 24.3 team pointsMark Andrews +
- No injury designationseven
- 72% vs 55% snap shareMark Andrews +
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