Makai Lemon or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
Historical comparison from 2026 Week 4 — one of these players isn’t on the current board.
Start Lemon — the availability and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.
Makai Lemon is the healthier side of this call (Ferguson carries a Doubtful tag) and plays a 66% snap share to Ferguson's 45%. Ferguson's edge is the consensus rank, TE22 to WR50. The gap is comfortable.
Makai Lemon
4.75.87.0 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
4.76.17.5 Projected Points
Why Makai Lemon
Toss-UpRookie WR3 in slot-heavy role. Quick separator with reliable hands and yards-after-catch juice.
Toss-up — WR50 consensus, projects WR68 this week: 11% target share, 7.0 PPR projected vs LAR.
- LAR ranks 12 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed WR-3 on the latest depth chart with a 66% snap share.
Why Terrance Ferguson
Sit· highSecond-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.
Listed doubtful with a medial ankle sprain and reported expected to miss Week 4 at PHI; even healthy, TE22 in a 3-of-32 matchup.
- Listed Doubtful on the latest report — rarely plays through that tag.
- PHI ranks 3 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.5 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 45% snap share.
The call
- Availability is the driver: status is D (doubtful), and Yahoo Sports (2026-09-29) reports he sustained a medial ankle sprain in Week 3 and is expected to miss the Eagles game. A therams.com headline says McVay called him likely out, though that headline is unverified.
- Even if he suits up, the profile is thin: 45% snap share and 11% target share over 3 games put him in a part-time role behind a TE22 consensus rank and 7.5 projected PPR points.
- The matchup offers no rescue. PHI grades 3 of 32 against tight ends, though that rests on a 3-game sample with 0.25 confidence.
- The 24.5 implied team total and -1.5 spread are neutral and don't offset the injury risk. Grab a healthy streamer instead of risking a zero from a doubtful player.
Latest on Ferguson
Ferguson sustained a medial ankle sprain in Week 3 and is expected to miss the Week 4 game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 29, 2026Rams head coach Sean McVay discusses the latest injury updates on tight ends Terrance Ferguson (ankle) and Colby Parkinson (shoulder), as well as cornerback Jaylen Watson (shoulder) coming out of Sunday Night Football against the Broncos, as well as wide receiver Puka Nacua's (hip) status
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Rams-Broncos on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Makai Lemon | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.75.87.0 | 4.76.17.5 |
| Consensus rank | WR50 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | LAR · 12 of 323-game sample | PHI · 3 of 323-game sample |
| Receptions | 1 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 6 of 32 | 5 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 24 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 4 of 32 | 3 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 24 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 11% | 11% |
| Reception share | 13% | 10% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0+1.5 | 24.5-1.5 |
| Depth chart | WR3 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 66% | 45% |
| Injury designation | — | Doubtful |
| Start/Sit record | 0–1 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Makai Lemon — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs CHI | 2.94.45.9 |
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 0.91.41.9 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | -0.51.02.5 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 3 weeks
| Week 3 | vs DEN | 0.91.41.9 |
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.0 vs 7.5 projected PPR pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- Rank 50 vs 22Terrance Ferguson +
- Opponent DvP rank 12 vs 3 (32 = softest)Makai Lemon +
- Implied 23.0 vs 24.5 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- no designation vs DoubtfulMakai Lemon +
- 66% vs 45% snap shareMakai Lemon +
Compare different players
Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.
More Lemon comparisons
This week’s toughest calls
- K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs PHI
Q. JudkinsQuinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs PIT
- Q. JudkinsQuinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs PITC. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs ARI
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs ARID. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJ
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJB. TutenBhayshul TutenRBJAXvs CIN
- B. TutenBhayshul TutenRBJAXvs CINB. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs GB
- B. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs GBD. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs DAL
- T. HigginsTee HigginsWRCINvs JAX
D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs PHI
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs PHIL. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs NYJ
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs NYJC. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs TB
- C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs TBP. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CIN
- P. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CINM. WilsonMichael WilsonWRARIvs NYG
- M. WilsonMichael WilsonWRARIvs NYGS. DiggsStefon DiggsWRWSHvs IND
- K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs NO
G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DEN
- G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DENS. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs CAR
- S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs CART. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs TB
- T. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs TBT. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs LV
- T. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs LVJ. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs HOU
- J. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs HOUI. LikelyIsaiah LikelyTENYGvs ARI
- D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs HOU
T. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CIN
- T. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CINB. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs DEN
- B. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs DENP. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs LV
- P. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs LVB. NixBo NixQBDENvs SF
- B. NixBo NixQBDENvs SFM. StaffordMatthew StaffordQBLARvs PHI
- M. StaffordMatthew StaffordQBLARvs PHIK. MurrayKyler MurrayQBMINvs MIA
- K. FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnKHOUvs DAL
H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs LV
- H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs LVT. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs TEN
- T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs TENW. ReichardWill ReichardKMINvs MIA
- W. ReichardWill ReichardKMINvs MIAE. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs JAX
- E. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs JAXS. ShraderSpencer ShraderKINDvs WSH
- S. ShraderSpencer ShraderKINDvs WSHD. CarlsonDaniel CarlsonKNOvs ATL
- Commanders D/STCommanders D/STDSTWSHvs IND
Bills D/STBills D/STDSTBUFvs NE
- Bills D/STBills D/STDSTBUFvs NEBears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs NYJ
- Bears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs NYJPackers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs TB
- Packers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs TBGiants D/STGiants D/STDSTNYGvs ARI
- Giants D/STGiants D/STDSTNYGvs ARIBuccaneers D/STBuccaneers D/STDSTTBvs GB
- Buccaneers D/STBuccaneers D/STDSTTBvs GB49ers D/ST49ers D/STDSTSFvs DEN
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs ARIP. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CIN
- P. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CIND. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJ
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJD. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs PHI
- C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs TBG. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DEN
- G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs DENT. HigginsTee HigginsWRCINvs JAX
- J. DownsJosh DownsWRINDvs WSH
D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs DAL - D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs DALM. WilsonMichael WilsonWRARIvs NYG
- J. CokerJalen CokerWRCARvs DET
K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs PHI
Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →
Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.
Add to My Team — freeOr browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.