Luther Burden III or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Luther Burden III and Terrance Ferguson grade out even this week. Burden's best edge is the projection (11.2 to 10.6), Ferguson's best edge is the consensus rank (TE22 to WR27) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Luther Burden III
6.68.911.2 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
6.78.610.6 Projected Points
Luther Burden III’s market
Terrance Ferguson’s market
Why Luther Burden III
Toss-UpWR2 and outside starter opposite Rome Odunze. Explosive yards-after-catch threat with manufactured-touch usage.
Toss-up — WR27 consensus, projects WR37 this week: PHI is the 10th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 24.0 implied team total.
- PHI ranks 10 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.0 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 65% snap share.
Why Terrance Ferguson
Toss-Up· lowSecond-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.
18% target share and a 24.3 implied total support the start-lean, but TE22 rank, a stingy DEN matchup (8 of 32) and an ankle note cap the upside.
- DEN ranks 8 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the case for him: an 18% target share on a 55% snap share is starter-caliber volume for a tight end, and the 10.6 PPR projection reflects that.
- Game environment helps. The Rams are 3-point favorites with a 24.3 implied total, so scoring chances should be there.
- Matchup cuts the other way. DEN ranks 8 of 32 vs TEs (32 = softest), though that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so weight it lightly.
- Risk: Yahoo (2026-09-23) reported he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle injury. He carries no designation now, but at TE22 he sits outside the 12-team starter tier. Start him over a streamer outside the top 15; sit him for anyone ranked there or higher.
Latest on Ferguson
Terrance Ferguson was listed as a limited participant with an ankle injury and was a surprise addition to Wednesday's injury report.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Rams-Broncos on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Luther Burden III | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.68.911.2 | 6.78.610.6 |
| Consensus rank | WR27 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | PHI · 10 of 322-game sample | DEN · 8 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 6 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 13 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 14 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 4 of 32 | 7 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 13 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 21% | 18% |
| Reception share | 20% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 24.0-1.5 | 24.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | WR2 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 65% | 55% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–1 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Luther Burden III — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs MIN | 3.24.76.2 |
| Week 1 | vs CAR | 4.57.09.5 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 11.2 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsLuther Burden III +
- Rank 27 vs 22Terrance Ferguson +
- Opponent DvP rank 10 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 24.0 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 65% vs 55% snap shareLuther Burden III +
Compare different players
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