Lamar Jackson or Tyler Shough: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Jackson — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Lamar Jackson is the higher consensus play (QB2 to QB18) and projects 21.1 to Shough's 18.8. No signal favors Shough this week. The gap is wide.
Lamar Jackson
21.121.121.1 Projected Points
Tyler Shough
18.818.818.8 Projected Points
Lamar Jackson’s market
Tyler Shough’s market
Why Lamar Jackson
StartFranchise starting QB and dual-threat superstar. Elite off-script creator with MVP-caliber efficiency and game-breaking rushing ability.
Start — every-week QB start at consensus QB2: 27.0 implied team total, 100% snap share.
- DAL ranks 21 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 27.0 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 100% snap share.
Latest on Jackson
A day before the Ravens travel to Brazil to play the Cowboys, quarterback Lamar Jackson said he isn't focusing on the condition of the field at Maracanã Stadium.
Here are the major questions facing the Ravens' offense from Sunday's loss.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tyler Shough
Toss-Up· mediumStarting QB. Big-armed pocket passer with functional mobility, entering his second NFL season.
QB18 with an 18.8 projection is streamer territory, and Vegas' modest 23.0 implied total plus a 5th-toughest DvP matchup caps the ceiling.
- LV ranks 5 of 32 against QBs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 100% snap share.
The call
- Consensus has him as QB18 — outside the 12 starting spots in a standard league — so he's only a play if your QB1 is out or on bye.
- The matchup is a problem on paper: the Raiders grade 5 of 32 in DvP composite (32 = softest), though that's a two-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it's a soft signal rather than a disqualifier.
- Game script is neutral-to-decent: Saints favored by 3.5 with a 23.0 implied total, which supports the 18.8 projection but doesn't scream shootout upside.
- Shough has been a fourth-quarter closer (highly effective in the fourth and OT through two games, 4-for-4 on fourth-down attempts), so late-game volume is a real path to a usable number — that's what would tip this to a start.
Latest on Shough
Tyler Shough has converted all four of his fourth-down attempts this season through two runs and two passes.
Tyler Shough's late-game heroics have Saints confidence soaringESPN · Sep 22, 2026Through the first two games, Tyler Shough has struggled through three quarters but has been highly effective in the fourth quarter and overtime.
Tyler Shough's late-game heroics have Saints confidence soaringESPN · Sep 22, 2026A collection of headlines and news about the Saints and the NFL for Wednesday, September 23
After Ravens DC Anthony Weaver attempted to pay Saints QB Tyler Shough a compliment by referring to him as a "poor man's Josh Allen," the New Orleans coaches turned it into a joke, dubbing Shough "poor man" for the rest of the week.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Lamar Jackson | Tyler Shough |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 21.121.121.1 | 18.818.818.8 |
| Consensus rank | QB2 | QB18 |
| Opponent vs position | DAL · 21 of 322-game sample | LV · 5 of 322-game sample |
| Passing Yards | 15 of 32 | 11 of 32 |
| Passing TDs | 26 of 32 | 2 of 32 |
| Passing Completions | 22 of 32 | 2 of 32 |
| Passing Attempts | 18 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Interceptions | 24 of 32 | 2 of 32 |
| Implied total · spread | 27.0-2.5 | 23.0-3.5 |
| Depth chart | QB1 | QB1 |
| Snap share | 100% | 100% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–2+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Lamar Jackson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NO | 14.814.814.8 |
| Week 1 | vs IND | 25.025.025.0 |
Tyler Shough — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs BAL | 22.422.422.4 |
| Week 1 | vs DET | 23.223.223.2 |
Signal breakdown
- 21.1 vs 18.8 projected PPR pointsLamar Jackson +
- Rank 2 vs 18Lamar Jackson +
- Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 5 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 27.0 vs 23.0 team pointsLamar Jackson +
- No injury designationseven
- 100% vs 100% snap shareeven
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