Joe Burrow or Malik Willis: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Burrow wins the comparison, but his back keeps this pair out of starting lineups

Burrow is the better bet because his QB5 consensus standing reflects a stronger baseline than Willis' QB21 profile, and Cincinnati's scoring outlook gives his pocket-passing skill more room to produce. The matchup itself does not help Burrow, while Willis' mobility offers an escape hatch against a tougher San Francisco assignment. Burrow's back is the deciding risk after limited work and mental reps Wednesday (ESPN 2026-09-16), though he expects to play (ESPN 2026-09-17). Both are board Sits, so choose Burrow only if forced rather than treating him as an automatic starter.

What flips it: A Friday downgrade for Burrow’s back.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 16, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 17, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 14, 2026

AI editor

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow

QB5CINvs HOU

Projected Points

Sit
Malik Willis

Malik Willis

QB21MIAvs SF

Projected Points

Sit

Joe Burrow’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 249.5
-114 / -114
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 1.5
-121 / -105
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
-141 / +106
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 8.5
-114 / -114
Rushing Yards Props →

Malik Willis’s market

PASS YDS
O/U 175.5
-120 / -110
Passing Yards Props →
PASS TD
O/U 0.5
-158 / +124
Passing Touchdowns Props →
INT
O/U 0.5
-151 / +118
Interceptions Thrown Props →
RUSH YDS
O/U 34.5
-115 / -115
Rushing Yards Props →
CIN@
HOUSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
MIA@
SFSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Joe Burrow

Sit

Franchise QB and precision pocket passer. Elite accuracy and anticipation; missed time in 2025 with injury.

Sit — QB5 consensus, projects QB19 this week: 100% snap share, Questionable on the latest report.

  • Cincinnati’s stronger scoring environment better supports a precision pocket passer than Miami’s projected game script.
  • Limited practice work and mental reps make Burrow’s health the key late-week risk (ESPN 2026-09-16).

Latest on Burrow

Status

Joe Burrow was limited in Wednesday's practice with back tightness but said it will not prevent him from playing Sunday.

Quick Hits | Big Game Joe Burrow Says He'll Be Ready For This One Vs. AFC South Power Texansbengals.com · Sep 16, 2026
Status

Burrow made no significant throws during the open portion of practice and took mental reps Wednesday.

Bengals' Burrow: 'Ridiculous' that tight back would keep me outESPN · Sep 16, 2026
Status

A back injury is not expected to keep Joe Burrow from playing this weekend against Houston.

Bengals' Burrow: 'Ridiculous' that tight back would keep me outESPN · Sep 16, 2026
Joe Burrow expects to play despite back tightness

Ben Baby reports Joe Burrow was limited Wednesday with back tightness but expects to play against Houston.

VideoESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Malik Willis

Sit

Starting QB with dual-threat mobility. Strong arm and designed-run value; a career backup signed in free agency to take over the job.

Sit — bench-tier QB at consensus QB21: SF is the 7th-toughest matchup vs QBs, 18.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.

  • Willis’ designed-run value gives him a ceiling path if Miami falls behind.
  • His five-sack debut shows the pressure risk behind the mobility upside (ESPN 2026-09-14).

Latest on Willis

Transcript: QB Malik Willis Press Conference - September 16

Read the full transcript from QB Malik Willis' postgame media availability on September 16, 2026.

miamidolphins.com · Sep 17, 2026
QB Malik Willis takes blame for five-sack Dolphins debut

Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley said Willis still has his 'total confidence and faith' after a rough debut for Miami.

ESPN · Sep 14, 2026
How did Malik Willis fare in his Dolphins' debut?

Marcel Louis-Jacques breaks down QB Malik Willis' debut with the Dolphins in Week 1.

VideoESPN · Sep 14, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricJoe BurrowMalik Willis
Projected points
Consensus rankQB5QB21
Opponent vs positionHOU · 19 of 321-game sampleSF · 7 of 321-game sample
Passing Yards29 of 328 of 32
Passing TDs17 of 321 of 32
Passing Completions17 of 327 of 32
Passing Attempts15 of 3212 of 32
Interceptions18 of 325 of 32
Implied total · spread22.0+2.518.0+10.5
Depth chartQB1QB1
Snap share100%100%
Injury designationQuestionable—

Recent form

Joe Burrow — last 1 week

Week 1vs TB

Malik Willis — last 1 week

Week 1vs LV

Signal breakdown

  • 16.6 vs 14.1 projected PPR pointsJoe Burrow +
  • Rank 5 vs 21Joe Burrow +
  • Opponent DvP rank 19 vs 7 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 22.0 vs 18.0 team pointsJoe Burrow +
  • Questionable vs no designationMalik Willis +
  • 100% vs 100% snap shareeven

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