Jaylen Waddle or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Waddle — the availability and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Jaylen Waddle is the healthier side of this call (Ferguson carries a D tag) and projects 13.1 to Ferguson's 10.6. Ferguson's edge is the game script, 24.3 implied points to 21.3. The gap is wide.
Jaylen Waddle
8.110.613.1 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
6.78.610.6 Projected Points
Jaylen Waddle’s market
Terrance Ferguson’s market
Why Jaylen Waddle
Toss-UpStarting WR2 with elite separation speed. Twitchy route runner and vertical threat working opposite the X.
Toss-up — WR21 consensus, projects WR19 this week: 23% target share, 13.1 PPR projected vs LAR.
- LAR ranks 12 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 21.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
- Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 70% snap share.
Latest on Waddle
Waddle drew 10 targets and caught eight passes last week, accounting for more than half of Denver's air yards.
How to bet Rams-Broncos on 'SNF': Analysis, tips and favorite playsESPN · Sep 27, 2026Jaylen Waddle was heavily featured in Denver's win, catching eight passes for 138 yards.
Newcomers Jaylen Waddle, Jonah Coleman lead Broncos to winESPN · Sep 22, 2026“You can see the explosiveness, the run after the catch, all of those things,” Head Coach Sean Payton said. “I’m glad he’s ours.”
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Terrance Ferguson
Toss-Up· lowSecond-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.
18% target share and a 24.3 implied total support the start-lean, but TE22 rank, a stingy DEN matchup (8 of 32) and an ankle note cap the upside.
- DEN ranks 8 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the case for him: an 18% target share on a 55% snap share is starter-caliber volume for a tight end, and the 10.6 PPR projection reflects that.
- Game environment helps. The Rams are 3-point favorites with a 24.3 implied total, so scoring chances should be there.
- Matchup cuts the other way. DEN ranks 8 of 32 vs TEs (32 = softest), though that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so weight it lightly.
- Risk: Yahoo (2026-09-23) reported he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle injury. He carries no designation now, but at TE22 he sits outside the 12-team starter tier. Start him over a streamer outside the top 15; sit him for anyone ranked there or higher.
Latest on Ferguson
Terrance Ferguson is likely to miss Sunday's game after sustaining a medial ankle sprain.
Injury Updates: McVay says Terrance Ferguson (ankle) and Jaylen Watson (shoulder) likely out for Week 4 at Eagles; latest on Colby Parkinson (shoulder) and Puka Nacua (hip)therams.com · Sep 28, 2026Terrance Ferguson was listed as a limited participant with an ankle injury and was a surprise addition to Wednesday's injury report.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Rams-Broncos on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Jaylen Waddle | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.110.613.1 | 6.78.610.6 |
| Consensus rank | WR21 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | LAR · 12 of 323-game sample | DEN · 8 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 1 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 6 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 24 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 4 of 32 | 7 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 24 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 23% | 18% |
| Reception share | 20% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.3+3.0 | 24.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | WR1 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 70% | 55% |
| Injury designation | — | D |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Jaylen Waddle — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs JAX | 13.817.821.8 |
| Week 1 | vs KC | 0.20.71.2 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 13.1 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsJaylen Waddle +
- Rank 21 vs 22Jaylen Waddle +
- Opponent DvP rank 12 vs 8 (32 = softest)Terrance Ferguson +
- Implied 21.3 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- no designation vs DJaylen Waddle +
- 70% vs 55% snap shareJaylen Waddle +
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