Jared Goff or Patrick Mahomes: Who Should You Start?

The call

• The 27.8 implied team total is the strongest signal on the sheet — Detroit is projected to score plenty, and Goff is the locked-in QB1 with no injury designation, so the volume and touchdown equity are there.
• Consensus has him QB18 at 15.8 points, which is outside the starting dozen in a 12-team league; that's the concrete argument for leaving him on the bench if you roster a top-12 arm.
• The opponent DvP composite ranks 9 of 32 (tougher half), but it comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle either way this week.
• A -7.0 spread cuts both ways: it points to a positive game script and red-zone chances, but a comfortable lead can hand the fourth quarter to the run game and cap his attempts. Tip it to start if your alternative is a sub-15-point streamer; sit him if you have an established QB1.

The call

• The number is the problem, not the name: 15.5 projected points and a QB13 consensus rank put him at replacement level in a 12-team league, and a 22.5 implied team total caps the ceiling against Denver.
• Role is untouchable — 97% snap share over 14 games — so if he plays he gets every dropback, and the -2.5 spread points to a tight game that keeps him throwing rather than sitting on a lead.
• The Q designation is the swing factor: clear him through Sunday inactives and he's a start over a streamer on name-brand upside; any lingering limitation and you take the safer QB with a friendlier matchup.