Jake Ferguson or RJ Harvey: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Dallas is projected for 28.0 implied points as a 4.5-point favorite, and Ferguson is the locked-in TE1 at a 76% snap share — that's a high-scoring offense funneling through a full-time player.
• The 7% target share is the one red flag, but it's a single-game sample off a two-catch, six-yard Week 1; ESPN (9/15) reports he remains the unquestioned No. 1 tight end and is expected to be more involved vs. Washington.
• Washington grades 20 of 32 in DvP composite vs tight ends — a mildly favorable draw, though it's a one-game sample with zero confidence, so the matchup neither makes nor breaks the call.
• At 9.6 projected points and a TE12 consensus rank, he clears the typical 12-team replacement TE comfortably; the floor is thin if the target share stays at 7%, but the role and game environment justify the start.

The call

• Role is real but shared: 51% snap share in a two-man rotation behind Dobbins, so touchdown-dependent upside rather than volume-driven output.
• The 15% target share plus PFF noting he's the third-down and two-minute-drill back is the case for him — receiving work is what makes RB38 playable in PPR.
• Matchup grades tough at 9 of 32 vs the position, but that's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so don't weigh it heavily either way.
• Denver's 23.0 implied total and -2.5 spread point to a tight game; if Denver leads late, Dobbins eats the clock-killing carries. A clear injury to Dobbins or a bump in Denver's total tips this to a start.