Jake Ferguson or MarShawn Lloyd: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Ferguson's stable TE1 role beats Lloyd's rushing-only flex bet
Ferguson gets the nod because his TE1 role is sturdier than Lloyd's flex profile, even with Lloyd carrying the higher raw projection. Dallas' strong scoring outlook and Ferguson's high-volume, red-zone role give him a more dependable path than a tight end coming off a quiet opener; ESPN expects him to be more involved. Lloyd's case is real—Yahoo Sports confirms he owned every rushing-play snap in Week 1—but his limited passing-down work makes him dependent on rushing efficiency or a touchdown.
What flips it: A verified expansion of Lloyd's passing-down role.
Sources: ESPN · Sep 15, 2026 · Yahoo Sports · Sep 14, 2026
AI editor
Jake Ferguson
5.77.79.6 Projected Points
MarShawn Lloyd
9.710.411.2 Projected Points
Jake Ferguson’s market
MarShawn Lloyd’s market
Why Jake Ferguson
Start· mediumTE1 and high-volume receiving tight end. Reliable chain-mover and red-zone target over the middle.
TE12 with a 28.0-point implied team total and 76% snaps as Dallas' unquestioned No. 1 tight end — Week 1 dud was volume noise, not a role change.
- The Week 1 dud did not change his role; ESPN expects more involvement with Dallas positioned to score.
- His red-zone role gives a higher-scoring Dallas offense more ways to turn stable snaps into touchdowns.
The call
- Dallas is projected for 28.0 implied points as a 4.5-point favorite, and Ferguson is the locked-in TE1 at a 76% snap share — that's a high-scoring offense funneling through a full-time player.
- The 7% target share is the one red flag, but it's a single-game sample off a two-catch, six-yard Week 1; ESPN (9/15) reports he remains the unquestioned No. 1 tight end and is expected to be more involved vs. Washington.
- Washington grades 20 of 32 in DvP composite vs tight ends — a mildly favorable draw, though it's a one-game sample with zero confidence, so the matchup neither makes nor breaks the call.
- At 9.6 projected points and a TE12 consensus rank, he clears the typical 12-team replacement TE comfortably; the floor is thin if the target share stays at 7%, but the role and game environment justify the start.
Latest on Ferguson
Jake Ferguson had a disappointing Week 1 with just two catches for six yards, but remains the unquestioned No. 1 tight end and is expected to be more involved in Week 2 against Washington.
ESPN · Sep 15, 2026Prescott needs four TDs to pass Tony Romo in the record book, so we sought the best moments from those who are helping him make history.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why MarShawn Lloyd
Toss-Up· mediumRB1-listed change-of-pace back. Explosive burst and receiving upside; minimal NFL sample due to injuries.
Owns 100% of the rushing-play snaps on a 5.5-point favorite, but RB33 at 11.2 with a 3% target share is pure flex — zero pass-game floor.
- Lloyd controls Green Bay's rushing work, so a lead-script game could make his explosive running style pay off.
- The downside is structural: limited pass-game usage leaves him needing rushing efficiency or a touchdown.
The call
- Role is the bull case: per Yahoo (9/14), Lloyd took all 13 of Green Bay's rushing-play snaps in Week 1 on a 44% snap share, so the carries funnel through him.
- Game script helps — a 24.0 implied total and a -5.5 spread point to a lead Green Bay can grind out, which means late-game handoffs.
- The cap is receiving work: 3% target share, seven pass-pro snaps and no catches means his PPR floor lives entirely on rushing volume and touchdown luck.
- Matchup grades tough (DvP 3 of 32, with 32 softest), but that's a one-game sample at 0.00 confidence — don't bench him on it. If he holds the full rush-snap share, he's a startable flex; if Green Bay splits the backfield, sit him.
Latest on Lloyd
Lloyd played 30 snaps in the Week 1 opener and got all 13 of the team's rushing-play snaps (13 carries), but only saw 16 passing-down snaps and pass-protected on just seven plays with no catches.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 14, 2026Lloyd is finally healthy and Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exempt list, but how much of a workload can Lloyd handle in Week 1?
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Jake Ferguson | MarShawn Lloyd |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.77.79.6 | 9.710.411.2 |
| Consensus rank | TE12 | RB33 |
| Opponent vs position | WSH · 20 of 321-game sample | NYJ · 3 of 321-game sample |
| Receptions | 9 of 32 | 8 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 24 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 30 of 32 | — |
| Targets | 6 of 32 | — |
| Anytime TD | 30 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Rushing Yards | — | 3 of 32 |
| Rushing TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Rushing Attempts | — | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 7% | 3% |
| Reception share | 9% | 0% |
| Implied total · spread | 28.0-4.5 | 24.0-5.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | RB1 |
| Snap share | 76% | 44% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–1 | 0–1+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Jake Ferguson — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs NYG | 0.61.62.6 |
MarShawn Lloyd — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs MIN | 3.73.73.7 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.6 vs 11.2 projected PPR pointsMarShawn Lloyd +
- Rank 12 vs 33Jake Ferguson +
- Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 3 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 28.0 vs 24.0 team pointsJake Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 76% vs 44% snap shareJake Ferguson +
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