Jake Ferguson or Kyle Pitts Sr.: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Ferguson's Game Script vs. Pitts's Volume: A True Split at TE

Ferguson gets there through the Cowboys' offense — a 25-point implied total and a red-zone role make him a projection-proof play even if the raw numbers lag Pitts slightly. Pitts gets there through sheer opportunity — an 88% snap share and a 23% target share mean he's on the field for nearly every snap and target, even stuck in a lower-scoring Atlanta attack. The rank gap (TE7 vs TE12) looks bigger than it is at tight end, where a few tenths of a point separate a dozen names in any given week. Both DvP marks are 0-game samples with zero confidence, so neither matchup edge should move your decision at all.

What flips it: A midweek snap-share or role change for either team's offense — particularly any hint Pitts's usage dips below the 20s in target share.

AI editor

Jake Ferguson

TE12DALvs NYG

5.57.69.8 Projected Points

Start· medium

Kyle Pitts Sr.

TE7ATLvs PIT

5.68.010.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Jake Ferguson

Start· medium

Starting TE in pass-catching role. High-volume seam target and red-zone weapon for Prescott.

17% target share and a 25.0-point implied team total make Ferguson a locked-in TE1 play; the tough DvP rank comes from a 0-game sample, so discount it.

A 25.0-point implied total with a real red-zone role turns touchdown equity into points a target-share number alone won't show.
Locked into a clear seam/red-zone role for Prescott, so his floor doesn't depend on garbage-time volume.

The call

A 17% target share on a 67% snap share is genuine TE1 volume — Ferguson is a core piece of this passing game, not a matchup-dependent streamer.
The 25.0 implied team total and -1.5 spread point to a competitive, scoring-neutral script where Dallas throws in the middle of the field all afternoon.
The opponent's 7-of-32 DvP composite looks scary but carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override role and volume.
No injury designation and a locked-in starting slot; at TE12 with 9.8 projected he clears the replacement-level tight end bar in 12-team PPR.

Why Kyle Pitts Sr.

Start· medium

Starting TE in pass-catching role. Mismatch seam-stretcher with rare athletic profile; high target volume in passing game.

TE7 with an 88% snap share and 23% target share — that volume plays in any 12-team PPR lineup, even in a modest 19.8-point team total.

An 88% snap share means Pitts is on the field even on early downs and in two-TE sets, not just as a passing-down specialist.
23% target share is the swing stat here — that's the kind of volume that survives a quiet team total.

The call

A 23% target share at tight end is elite-tier usage, and the 88% snap rate means Pitts is on the field for every situational package — that floor alone clears replacement level at a thin position.
Consensus has him TE7 at 10.4 projected points; you are not finding a better option on the waiver wire in a 12-team league.
The DvP composite lists Pittsburgh 27 of 32 (32 = softest), but it carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a bonus.
The real drag is the 19.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread — a low-scoring script caps the ceiling, but the target volume protects the floor.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Ferguson	Kyle Pitts Sr.
Projected points	5.57.69.8	5.68.010.4
Consensus rank	TE12	TE7
Opponent vs position	NYG · 7 of 320-game sample	PIT · 27 of 320-game sample
Receptions	7 of 32	29 of 32
Receiving Yards	10 of 32	28 of 32
Receiving TDs	6 of 32	26 of 32
Targets	9 of 32	28 of 32
Anytime TD	5 of 32	26 of 32
Target share	17%(2025)	23%(2025)
Reception share	20%(2025)	27%(2025)
Implied total · spread	25.0-1.5	19.8+3.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	67%(2025)	88%(2025)