Jake Ferguson or Josh Downs: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Ferguson's role gives the narrow projection edge a sturdier floor

Ferguson gets the call because Dallas' scoring environment and his entrenched TE1 role outweigh a nearly even raw projection; at tight end, the rank gap offers more insulation than the projection gap suggests. His Week 1 dud looks more like missing involvement than a demotion, with ESPN expecting him to be more involved against Washington [ESPN 2026-09-15]. Downs has the better weekly route volume and a useful slot role, but Indianapolis' lower scoring outlook and Kansas City's difficult WR matchup leave him needing efficiency or a big play.

What flips it: A confirmed reduction in Ferguson's TE1 role before kickoff.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 15, 2026

AI editor

Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson

TE12DALvs WSH

Projected Points

Start· medium
Josh Downs

Josh Downs

WR48INDvs KC

Projected Points

Toss-Up

Jake Ferguson’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
+105 / -134
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 26.5
-109 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+260
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Josh Downs’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+128 / -164
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 42.5
-111 / -118
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+350
Anytime Touchdown Props →
WSH@
DALSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
IND@
KCSun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Jake Ferguson

Start· medium

TE1 and high-volume receiving tight end. Reliable chain-mover and red-zone target over the middle.

TE12 with a 28.0-point implied team total and 76% snaps as Dallas' unquestioned No. 1 tight end — Week 1 dud was volume noise, not a role change.

  • Dallas' red-zone chances make Ferguson's middle-field role more valuable than the small projection gap suggests.
  • The real danger is another low-involvement game, not a change in Ferguson's standing as Dallas' top tight end.

The call

  • Dallas is projected for 28.0 implied points as a 4.5-point favorite, and Ferguson is the locked-in TE1 at a 76% snap share — that's a high-scoring offense funneling through a full-time player.
  • The 7% target share is the one red flag, but it's a single-game sample off a two-catch, six-yard Week 1; ESPN (9/15) reports he remains the unquestioned No. 1 tight end and is expected to be more involved vs. Washington.
  • Washington grades 20 of 32 in DvP composite vs tight ends — a mildly favorable draw, though it's a one-game sample with zero confidence, so the matchup neither makes nor breaks the call.
  • At 9.6 projected points and a TE12 consensus rank, he clears the typical 12-team replacement TE comfortably; the floor is thin if the target share stays at 7%, but the role and game environment justify the start.

Latest on Ferguson

Role

Jake Ferguson had a disappointing Week 1 with just two catches for six yards, but remains the unquestioned No. 1 tight end and is expected to be more involved in Week 2 against Washington.

ESPN · Sep 15, 2026
Cowboys' TD record: I caught a TD pass from Dak Prescott

Prescott needs four TDs to pass Tony Romo in the record book, so we sought the best moments from those who are helping him make history.

ESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Josh Downs

Toss-Up

WR2 working primarily from the slot. Twitchy separator with reliable chain-moving production.

Toss-up — WR48 consensus, projects WR52 this week: KC is the 4th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 14% target share.

  • Downs' slot work and separation skills give him a path to steady PPR points if Indianapolis trails.
  • His upside depends on beating a defense that has been among the least welcoming to wideouts.

Head-to-head stats

MetricJake FergusonJosh Downs
Projected points
Consensus rankTE12WR48
Opponent vs positionWSH · 20 of 321-game sampleKC · 4 of 321-game sample
Receptions9 of 323 of 32
Receiving Yards24 of 323 of 32
Receiving TDs30 of 321 of 32
Targets6 of 3211 of 32
Anytime TD30 of 321 of 32
Target share7%14%
Reception share9%11%
Implied total · spread28.0-4.520.5+6.5
Depth chartTE1WR2
Snap share76%89%
Start/Sit record0–1—

Recent form

Jake Ferguson — last 1 week

Week 1vs NYG

Josh Downs — last 1 week

Week 1vs BAL

Signal breakdown

  • 9.6 vs 9.4 projected PPR pointsJake Ferguson +
  • Rank 12 vs 48Jake Ferguson +
  • Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 4 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 28.0 vs 20.5 team pointsJake Ferguson +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 76% vs 89% snap shareJosh Downs +

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