Jadarian Price or Khalil Shakir: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Vegas is the strongest signal here: a 10-point spread and 27.3 implied team total set up exactly the kind of second-half ground-and-pound workload a lead back wants.
• 48% snap share plus an 8% target share in the RB slot means he's involved as both a runner and a pass-game outlet — 13.2 projected points and an RB23 rank clear the 12-team PPR bar.
• The DvP composite of 7 of 32 reads tough on paper, but it's built off a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it's noise rather than a reason to bench him.
• Risk is the split: at 48% of snaps he isn't a locked-in every-down back, so if this turns into a genuine committee his ceiling caps out near the projection.

The call

• Volume is real where it counts: 21% target share and 20 routes on Josh Allen's 32 dropbacks — Shakir is the No. 2 pass-game option and the slot works in PPR.
• Game environment helps: 27.8 implied team total with Buffalo favored by 3.0, so there's no negative-script concern and plenty of points to distribute.
• Matchup is a mild plus at 24 of 32 vs the position, though it's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence — treat it as neutral rather than a green light.
• Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: a 53% snap share as the WR-2 behind DJ Moore caps big weeks, so he's a flex/WR3 start, not a set-and-forget.