Start Isaiah Likely over Tre Tucker — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Likely's TE scarcity edge outweighs Tucker's bigger route diet

Isaiah Likely gets the call not because he's doing more on the field than Tre Tucker — he isn't — but because a mid-tier TE1 role is worth more than being the 60th-ranked wideout in a crowded position. Tucker's near-every-snap role and jet-motion touches give Las Vegas a reliable target hog, but at wide receiver that still buries him behind dozens of higher-efficiency options. Likely's seam-stretching, red-zone-capable role means Baltimore's slightly plumper implied total translates more directly into scoring chances for him than Tucker's does in a game where the Raiders are underdogs. The real risk here is volume: if Tucker's target share ticks up further, his weekly floor can match or pass Likely's despite the rank gap.

What flips it: A shift toward negative game script for Las Vegas that forces extra Tucker targets late.

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Tre Tucker

WR60LVvs MIA

6.27.79.1 Projected Points

Start

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

14% target share on 59% of snaps makes Likely a locked-in TE14 play; the DvP number carries a 0-game sample, so usage wins out.

Likely's specific role — seam-stretcher with red-zone use — makes a plus scoring environment matter more per target

The call

Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

Why Tre Tucker

Start

WR1 and vertical speed threat. Field-stretching burner used on jet motion and manufactured touches.

Start — WR60 consensus, projects WR52 this week: 19% target share in 2025, 9.1 PPR projected vs MIA.

Tucker's a true bell-cow WR1 workload, so a shootout or garbage-time volume spike is his path to a big week

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Isaiah Likely	Tre Tucker
Projected points	5.67.59.4	6.27.79.1
Consensus rank	TE14	WR60
Opponent vs position	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample	MIA · 14 of 320-game sample
Receptions	16 of 32	11 of 32
Receiving Yards	16 of 32	9 of 32
Receiving TDs	6 of 32	22 of 32
Targets	9 of 32	4 of 32
Anytime TD	5 of 32	22 of 32
Target share	14%(2025)	19%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	17%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+1.5	22.3-3.0
Depth chart	TE1	WR1
Snap share	59%(2025)	95%(2025)