Isaiah Likely or Tetairoa McMillan: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start McMillan for the sturdier role, but Likely's red-zone ceiling keeps this close

Start McMillan: his WR1, primary-target role gives him the safer path to volume, while Likely's appeal is concentrated in mismatch and red-zone usage. The margin is narrower than the projections suggest because Likely just seized meaningful slot work and converted every Week 1 target, a role change documented by Yahoo Sports (PFF) 2026-09-14; McMillan needed second-half chase volume to produce, per ESPN 2026-09-14. McMillan's risk is another game-script-dependent finish, but his snap floor makes him the better play.

What flips it: A verified expansion of Likely's full-time slot role before kickoff.

Sources: Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 14, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs LAR

Projected Points

Start· medium
Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan

WR16CARvs ATL

Projected Points

Start

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-115 / -111
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 44.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+285
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Tetairoa McMillan’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+100 / -128
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 57.5
-113 / -111
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+195
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NYG@
LARMon, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
CAR@
ATLSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

28% target share and 8-for-8, two-TD Week 1 make Likely a TE1 play; 11.5 projected at TE14 clears the bar even in a 20-point implied total.

  • Likely's red-zone mismatch gives him a realistic path to beat the volume gap with one scoring play.
  • His new slot involvement adds a layer beyond his listed tight-end role.

The call

  • Usage is the case: a 28% target share plus the 17 slot snaps he took over means he's the primary target in this passing game, not a situational tight end.
  • Week 1 receipts back it up — all eight targets caught for two touchdowns and an 82.8 PFF grade, the best mark among the pass-catchers.
  • The matchup grades tough (7 of 32 vs TEs) but that's a one-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh a locked-in target role.
  • Real risk is the environment: a 20.0 implied total with an 8.5-point spread and only a 49% snap share cap the ceiling if the offense stalls.

Latest on Likely

Role

Likely led the Giants' Week 1 pass-catchers with an 82.8 PFF grade, catching all eight targets for two touchdowns and taking over much of the slot receiver role (17 slot snaps) previously held by Wan'Dale Robinson.

Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026
Isaiah Likely's Week 2 preview
VideoESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Tetairoa McMillan

Start

WR1 and primary target. 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year who set the Panthers rookie receiving record with 1,014 yards, a big-bodied X with elite catch radius.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: ATL is the 10th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 24% target share.

  • McMillan's WR1 workload is sturdier than a touchdown-dependent tight-end profile.
  • His biggest concern is game-script dependence after Week 1 production arrived late.

Latest on McMillan

Role

Tetairoa McMillan caught 5 of 8 targets for 75 yards in Week 1, with just one catch for 14 yards in the first half before padding stats after halftime as Carolina chased the score.

ESPN · Sep 14, 2026
Panthers' Tetairoa McMillan says he's stronger, but is he more versatile, too?

Now "20 pounds heavier," Carolina's second-year WR will aim to take advantage of his size over the middle.

ESPN · Sep 5, 2026
Tetairoa McMillan ready for year two

The Panthers WR looks bigger and stronger as he prepares for his sophomore NFL season.

VideoESPN · Sep 4, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyTetairoa McMillan
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14WR16
Opponent vs positionLAR · 7 of 321-game sampleATL · 10 of 321-game sample
Receptions9 of 3212 of 32
Receiving Yards9 of 3215 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 321 of 32
Targets15 of 3222 of 32
Anytime TD1 of 321 of 32
Target share28%24%
Reception share35%22%
Implied total · spread20.0+8.521.5+1.5
Depth chartTE1WR1
Snap share49%82%
Start/Sit record1–0—

Recent form

Isaiah Likely — last 1 week

Week 1vs DAL

Tetairoa McMillan — last 1 week

Week 1vs CHI

Signal breakdown

  • 11.5 vs 13.7 projected PPR pointsTetairoa McMillan +
  • Rank 14 vs 16Isaiah Likely +
  • Opponent DvP rank 7 vs 10 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 20.0 vs 21.5 team pointsTetairoa McMillan +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 49% vs 82% snap shareTetairoa McMillan +

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