Isaiah Likely or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Likely’s established role beats Ferguson’s higher-variance path

Start Likely: his starting role and stronger claim on the passing game give him a sturdier path to production than Ferguson, who sits behind a starter. The projection gap is modest for a tight end, but Likely’s higher standing reflects a clearer weekly role; the similarly soft early DvP readings do little to separate them. Ferguson’s slightly better team scoring outlook and explosive receiving ability keep him in the streaming conversation, but his surprise ankle listing adds a real availability concern (Yahoo Sports 2026-09-23).

What flips it: A material downgrade for Likely, or confirmation Ferguson’s ankle is no longer limiting him.

Sources: Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs TEN

Projected Points

Start· medium
Terrance Ferguson

Terrance Ferguson

TE22LARvs DEN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-153 / +120
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 39.5
-115 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+300
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Terrance Ferguson’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-172 / +128
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 50.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+210
Anytime Touchdown Props →
TEN@
NYGSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LAR@
DENSun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

30% target share through 2 games and a 12.2-point projection make Likely a startable TE14 despite a tougher-looking DvP of 9 of 32.

  • As the established starter, Likely has a safer route to involvement than a secondary tight end.
  • His seam-stretching and red-zone flexibility give that involvement more than one way to pay off.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 30% target share is elite for a tight end, and it offsets a modest 59% snap share that would normally cap his floor.
  • The matchup reads unfavorable at 9 of 32, but that composite rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh his role.
  • Game script is supportive: a 23.8 implied team total as a 3-point favorite points to a functional offense with red-zone chances.
  • The risk is volatility. Two games of target data can regress, and the part-time snap share leaves a thin floor if the looks dry up. At TE14 with 12.2 projected, he still clears typical streaming options.

Latest on Likely

Isaiah Likely's Week 2 preview
VideoESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Terrance Ferguson

Toss-Up· low

Second-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.

18% target share and a 24.3 implied total make him streamable, but TE22 rank and a surprise ankle limitation temper the start-lean.

  • Ferguson’s explosive seam ability can deliver a useful ceiling even from behind the starter.
  • The ankle report is the swing risk; his surprise listing merits a final check.

The call

  • Usage is real for a tight end: 18% target share on a 55% snap share through 2 games, and the offense carries a healthy 24.3 implied total as a 3-point favorite.
  • The 10.6 PPR projection is useful at a thin position, but consensus has him at TE22, outside the TE1 tier in a 12-team league, so he's a streamer rather than a locked starter.
  • DEN grades 8 of 32 against tight ends, a tougher-than-average draw. It rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so treat it as noise rather than a knock.
  • What tips it: Yahoo Sports (2026-09-23) reported he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle injury. He has no designation now. A full practice later in the week makes him a start. Any downgrade, or a TE1-range option on your bench, means sit.

Latest on Ferguson

Status

Terrance Ferguson was listed as a limited participant with an ankle injury and was a surprise addition to Wednesday's injury report.

Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyTerrance Ferguson
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14TE22
Opponent vs positionTEN · 9 of 322-game sampleDEN · 8 of 322-game sample
Receptions16 of 329 of 32
Receiving Yards1 of 3221 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 321 of 32
Targets16 of 327 of 32
Anytime TD13 of 321 of 32
Target share30%18%
Reception share35%15%
Implied total · spread23.8-3.024.3-3.0
Depth chartTE1TE2
Snap share59%55%
Start/Sit record1–10–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Isaiah Likely — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs LAR
Week 1vs DAL

Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NYG
Week 1vs SF

Signal breakdown

  • 12.2 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Rank 14 vs 22Isaiah Likely +
  • Opponent DvP rank 9 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 23.8 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 59% vs 55% snap shareIsaiah Likely +

Compare different players

Week 3214 players
Player A
vs
Player B

Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.

More Likely comparisons

More Ferguson comparisons

This week’s toughest calls

Start/Sit Board•Weekly Rankings•Streamers•Sleepers & Busts•Waiver Wire•My Team•MLB NRFI Board•Free Tools•NFL Props•NFL Games

Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →

Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.

Add to My Team — free

Or browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.