Isaiah Likely or Pat Freiermuth: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Likely for the concentrated receiving role

Likely’s target share gives him a more compelling path to useful tight-end volume, and the projected gap is meaningful at a position where reliable production is scarce. His lighter snap load is the risk: it leaves less room for a quiet stretch than Freiermuth’s steadier deployment. Freiermuth’s heavier role and chain-moving skills support a reasonable floor, but his smaller share of the passing game makes him the less attractive start; the DvP split is too uncertain to decide this.

What flips it: Freiermuth’s upward trend becomes a meaningful increase in receiving involvement (ESPN 2026-09-17).

Sources: ESPN · Sep 17, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs TEN

Projected Points

Start· medium
Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth

TE24PITvs CIN

Projected Points

Start

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-150 / +117
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 39.5
-118 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+290
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Pat Freiermuth’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-139 / +109
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 35.5
-109 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+370
Anytime Touchdown Props →
TEN@
NYGSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
CIN@
PITSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

30% target share through 2 games and a 12.2-point projection make Likely a startable TE14 despite a tougher-looking DvP of 9 of 32.

  • His seam-stretching role can turn concentrated targets into high-value gains and red-zone chances.
  • The main concern is playing time: fewer snaps leave less margin for an off day.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 30% target share is elite for a tight end, and it offsets a modest 59% snap share that would normally cap his floor.
  • The matchup reads unfavorable at 9 of 32, but that composite rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh his role.
  • Game script is supportive: a 23.8 implied team total as a 3-point favorite points to a functional offense with red-zone chances.
  • The risk is volatility. Two games of target data can regress, and the part-time snap share leaves a thin floor if the looks dry up. At TE14 with 12.2 projected, he still clears typical streaming options.

Latest on Likely

Isaiah Likely's Week 2 preview
VideoESPN · Sep 16, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Pat Freiermuth

Start

TE1 in pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover with red-zone size and dependable hands.

Start — TE24 consensus, projects TE21 this week: 14% target share, 8.3 PPR projected vs CIN.

  • A fuller snap role gives him a steadier base, and his red-zone size can create scoring chances.
  • His reported upward trend could matter if it brings a larger share of the passing game.

Latest on Freiermuth

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyPat Freiermuth
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14TE24
Opponent vs positionTEN · 9 of 322-game sampleCIN · 19 of 322-game sample
Receptions15 of 3232 of 32
Receiving Yards1 of 3232 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 321 of 32
Targets16 of 3230 of 32
Anytime TD13 of 321 of 32
Target share30%14%
Reception share35%19%
Implied total · spread23.8-3.022.5+1.5
Depth chartTE1TE1
Snap share59%70%
Start/Sit record1–1—

Recent form

Isaiah Likely — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs LAR
Week 1vs DAL

Pat Freiermuth — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NE
Week 1vs ATL

Signal breakdown

  • 12.2 vs 8.3 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Rank 14 vs 24Isaiah Likely +
  • Opponent DvP rank 9 vs 19 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 23.8 vs 22.5 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 59% vs 70% snap sharePat Freiermuth +

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