Isaiah Likely or MarShawn Lloyd: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Likely’s slot takeover beats Lloyd’s rushing-only path in PPR
Start Isaiah Likely: his early takeover of the slot and red-zone role gives him a sturdier PPR path than MarShawn Lloyd’s rushing-only workload. The call is narrow because Lloyd owns the rushing snaps in a favorable script, but his minimal receiving involvement makes any stalled drives or negative game flow dangerous; Likely’s TE14 standing provides meaningful positional insulation. Lloyd’s explosiveness and rushing control offer a legitimate touchdown-driven ceiling, yet he needs efficiency or a scoring chance to overcome the missing pass-game floor.
What flips it: A confirmed loss of Likely’s slot role or a meaningful passing-down promotion for Lloyd.
Sources: Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026
AI editor
In standard and half-PPR scoring this is a coin flip.
Isaiah Likely
6.68.811.0 Projected Points
MarShawn Lloyd
9.710.411.2 Projected Points
Isaiah Likely’s market
MarShawn Lloyd’s market
Why Isaiah Likely
Start· mediumStarting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.
28% target share and a Week 1 line of 8-for-8 with two TDs make Likely a clear TE1 play at TE14, even in a tough on-paper matchup.
- Slot deployment creates a second route to points beyond touchdown variance at tight end.
- His red-zone mismatch profile fits a pass-catcher already trusted near the goal line.
The call
- Usage is the sell: a 28% target share and an 8-target, 8-catch, two-touchdown Week 1 in which he absorbed slot snaps (17) previously held by Wan'Dale Robinson — that's a featured role, not a rotational one.
- The DvP composite of 7 of 32 looks scary but it's a one-game sample with 0.00 confidence; there's not enough signal there to bench a 28%-target tight end.
- Game script helps: an 8.5-point spread and a 20.0 implied total point to negative-script passing volume, which funnels targets to the underneath and slot area Likely now works.
- Risk is the 49% snap share — he's still splitting time, so the floor depends on efficiency and red-zone looks rather than raw volume.
Latest on Likely
Likely led the Giants' Week 1 pass-catchers with an 82.8 PFF grade, catching all eight targets for two touchdowns and taking over much of the slot receiver role (17 slot snaps) previously held by Wan'Dale Robinson.
Yahoo Sports (PFF) · Sep 14, 2026Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why MarShawn Lloyd
Toss-Up· mediumRB1-listed change-of-pace back. Explosive burst and receiving upside; minimal NFL sample due to injuries.
Owns 100% of the rushing-play snaps on a 5.5-point favorite, but RB33 at 11.2 with a 3% target share is pure flex — zero pass-game floor.
- Green Bay’s expected control gives his rushing role a credible touchdown path.
- Explosive burst could turn a limited receiving role into a big play, but the floor remains fragile.
The call
- Role is the bull case: per Yahoo (9/14), Lloyd took all 13 of Green Bay's rushing-play snaps in Week 1 on a 44% snap share, so the carries funnel through him.
- Game script helps — a 24.0 implied total and a -5.5 spread point to a lead Green Bay can grind out, which means late-game handoffs.
- The cap is receiving work: 3% target share, seven pass-pro snaps and no catches means his PPR floor lives entirely on rushing volume and touchdown luck.
- Matchup grades tough (DvP 3 of 32, with 32 softest), but that's a one-game sample at 0.00 confidence — don't bench him on it. If he holds the full rush-snap share, he's a startable flex; if Green Bay splits the backfield, sit him.
Latest on Lloyd
Lloyd played 30 snaps in the Week 1 opener and got all 13 of the team's rushing-play snaps (13 carries), but only saw 16 passing-down snaps and pass-protected on just seven plays with no catches.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 14, 2026Lloyd is finally healthy and Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner exempt list, but how much of a workload can Lloyd handle in Week 1?
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Isaiah Likely | MarShawn Lloyd |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.68.811.0 | 9.710.411.2 |
| Consensus rank | TE14 | RB33 |
| Opponent vs position | LAR · 7 of 321-game sample | NYJ · 3 of 321-game sample |
| Receptions | 9 of 32 | 8 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 9 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 1 of 32 | — |
| Targets | 15 of 32 | — |
| Anytime TD | 1 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Rushing Yards | — | 3 of 32 |
| Rushing TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Rushing Attempts | — | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 28% | 3% |
| Reception share | 35% | 0% |
| Implied total · spread | 20.0+8.5 | 24.0-5.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | RB1 |
| Snap share | 49% | 44% |
| Start/Sit record | 1–0 | 0–1+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Isaiah Likely — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs DAL | 19.823.827.8 |
MarShawn Lloyd — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs MIN | 3.73.73.7 |
Signal breakdown
- 11.0 vs 11.2 projected PPR pointsMarShawn Lloyd +
- Rank 14 vs 33Isaiah Likely +
- Opponent DvP rank 7 vs 3 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 20.0 vs 24.0 team pointsMarShawn Lloyd +
- No injury designationseven
- 49% vs 44% snap shareIsaiah Likely +
Compare different players
Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.
More Likely comparisons
More Lloyd comparisons
This week’s toughest calls
- K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs NYG
C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs LAR
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs LARD. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs MIN
- D. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs MINB. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CLE
- B. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CLED. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs CIN
- D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs CINJ. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs ARI
- J. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs ARIR. StevensonRhamondre StevensonRBNEvs PIT
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs NYG
J. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs BUF
- J. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs BUFL. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MIN
- L. Burden IIILuther Burden IIIWRCHIvs MINM. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIA
- M. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIAC. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs NYJ
- C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs NYJC. SuttonCourtland SuttonWRDENvs JAX
- C. SuttonCourtland SuttonWRDENvs JAXM. GoldenMatthew GoldenWRGBvs NYJ
- B. BowersBrock BowersTELVvs LAC
K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs CAR
- K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs CARG. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs MIA
- G. KittleGeorge KittleTESFvs MIAS. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs BUF
- S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs BUFT. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs NYJ
- T. KraftTucker KraftTEGBvs NYJT. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs IND
- T. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs INDD. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs TEN
- D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs WSH
J. DartJaxson DartQBNYGvs LAR
- J. DartJaxson DartQBNYGvs LARJ. HerbertJustin HerbertQBLACvs LV
- J. HerbertJustin HerbertQBLACvs LVC. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs MIN
- C. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs MINB. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs MIA
- B. PurdyBrock PurdyQBSFvs MIAP. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs IND
- P. MahomesPatrick MahomesQBKCvs INDB. NixBo NixQBDENvs JAX
- B. AubreyBrandon AubreyKDALvs WSH
K. FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnKHOUvs CIN
- K. FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnKHOUvs CINH. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs IND
- H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs INDT. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs NO
- T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs NOC. SantosCairo SantosKCHIvs MIN
- C. SantosCairo SantosKCHIvs MINC. McLaughlinChase McLaughlinKTBvs CLE
- C. McLaughlinChase McLaughlinKTBvs CLEN. FolkNick FolkKATLvs CAR
- Buccaneers D/STBuccaneers D/STDSTTBvs CLE
Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs LV
- Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs LVPatriots D/STPatriots D/STDSTNEvs PIT
- Patriots D/STPatriots D/STDSTNEvs PITBroncos D/STBroncos D/STDSTDENvs JAX
- Broncos D/STBroncos D/STDSTDENvs JAXBears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs MIN
- Bears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs MINPackers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs NYJ
- Packers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs NYJPanthers D/STPanthers D/STDSTCARvs ATL
- C. HubbardChuba HubbardRBCARvs ATL
B. BowersBrock BowersTELVvs LAC - B. BowersBrock BowersTELVvs LACA. Jones Sr.Aaron Jones Sr.RBMINvs CHI
- D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs CIND. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs NYG
- D. AdamsDavante AdamsWRLARvs NYGD. SwiftD'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs MIN
- J. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs ARIM. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIA
- M. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs MIAR. StevensonRhamondre StevensonRBNEvs PIT
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs LARC. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs NYJ
- C. SuttonCourtland SuttonWRDENvs JAXJ. DobbinsJ.K. DobbinsRBDENvs JAX
Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →
Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.
Add to My Team — freeOr browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.