Start Kyle Pitts Sr. over Isaiah Likely — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Pitts's every-down role outweighs Likely's better team total

Kyle Pitts is playing nearly every snap and pulling almost a quarter of Atlanta's targets, and that kind of role rarely goes cold even in a offense projected for under 20 points. Isaiah Likely's game script looks shinier with the Giants implied near 24, but he's still playing under 60% of snaps and seeing well under a fifth of the targets, so a chunk of that scoring environment isn't reaching him. The DvP matchup gap looks lopsided on paper, but it's built on a zero-game sample for both, so treat it as noise rather than a real edge for either tight end. This is a start-both week at the position, with Pitts the stronger of the two because his role is simply more secure.

What flips it: A midweek target-share bump for Likely into the mid-20s would flip this.

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Kyle Pitts Sr.

TE7ATLvs PIT

5.68.010.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Receiving TE with mismatch traits. Vertical seam-stretcher used in flex alignments more than as an in-line blocker.

14% target share on 59% of snaps makes Likely a locked-in TE14 play; the DvP number carries a 0-game sample, so usage wins out.

Best-case scenario: a 23.5-point implied total gives him more total offense to tap into than Pitts has.
He's used as a seam-stretcher in flex sets, which can produce spike weeks even on modest overall usage.

The call

Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

Why Kyle Pitts Sr.

Start· medium

Starting TE in pass-catching role. Mismatch seam-stretcher with rare athletic profile; high target volume in passing game.

TE7 with an 88% snap share and 23% target share — that volume plays in any 12-team PPR lineup, even in a modest 19.8-point team total.

An 88% snap share on a 23% target share is a locked pass-catching role that travels regardless of game script.
His TE7 consensus rank reflects sustained volume over 17 games, not a one-week outlier.

The call

A 23% target share at tight end is elite-tier usage, and the 88% snap rate means Pitts is on the field for every situational package — that floor alone clears replacement level at a thin position.
Consensus has him TE7 at 10.4 projected points; you are not finding a better option on the waiver wire in a 12-team league.
The DvP composite lists Pittsburgh 27 of 32 (32 = softest), but it carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a bonus.
The real drag is the 19.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread — a low-scoring script caps the ceiling, but the target volume protects the floor.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Isaiah Likely	Kyle Pitts Sr.
Projected points	5.67.59.4	5.68.010.4
Consensus rank	TE14	TE7
Opponent vs position	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample	PIT · 27 of 320-game sample
Receptions	16 of 32	29 of 32
Receiving Yards	16 of 32	28 of 32
Receiving TDs	6 of 32	26 of 32
Targets	9 of 32	28 of 32
Anytime TD	5 of 32	26 of 32
Target share	14%(2025)	23%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	27%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+1.5	19.8+3.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	59%(2025)	88%(2025)