Start Harold Fannin Jr. over Isaiah Likely — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Fannin's volume trumps Likely's better scoreboard script at a shallow position

Fannin is the every-week TE1 target in Cleveland's offense, and that target share is the whole case: a mismatch piece who sees the ball 22% of the time on 76% of snaps doesn't need a shootout to produce, he just needs touches, and he gets them regardless of script. Likely's Giants tag along in a much higher-scoring game, but he's playing a complementary role behind other pass-catchers, and 14% of targets on 59% of snaps means he's dependent on that shootout actually materializing to hit his ceiling. The DvP matchup numbers here are essentially noise given the zero-game sample, so this comes down to who touches the ball more, and that's Fannin. The margin is real but not overwhelming — Likely's game environment is legitimately better, it just isn't enough to offset the target gap.

What flips it: A jump in Likely's snap share or target share toward Fannin's level, signaling an expanded role rather than just a friendlier scoreboard.

AI editor

In standard scoring this is a coin flip.

Harold Fannin Jr.

TE5CLEvs JAX

6.28.611.1 Projected Points

Start

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Harold Fannin Jr.

Start

TE1 and high-volume receiving target. Move tight end and mismatch chess piece with YAC ability.

Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE5: JAX is the 9th-softest matchup vs TEs, 16.5 implied team total caps the ceiling.

Target and snap shares this far above Likely's mean he's the offense's primary receiving outlet at TE, not a complementary piece.
A TE5 consensus rank reflects a role that's proven durable across a full season, not matchup-dependent flashes.

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

14% target share on 59% of snaps makes Likely a locked-in TE14 play; the DvP number carries a 0-game sample, so usage wins out.

A near-even spread and a 23.5 implied total give Likely more paths to garbage-time and red-zone work if the game stays close.
His seam-stretching, red-zone-flex profile means even a modest target share can convert into scoring chances in a track meet.

The call

Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harold Fannin Jr.	Isaiah Likely
Projected points	6.28.611.1	5.67.59.4
Consensus rank	TE5	TE14
Opponent vs position	JAX · 24 of 320-game sample	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample
Receptions	26 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving Yards	22 of 32	16 of 32
Receiving TDs	21 of 32	6 of 32
Targets	31 of 32	9 of 32
Anytime TD	20 of 32	5 of 32
Target share	22%(2025)	14%(2025)
Reception share	24%(2025)	15%(2025)
Implied total · spread	16.5+7.5	23.5+1.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	76%(2025)	59%(2025)